US Stock Market Preview | Three Major Stock Index Futures Rise Together as Middle East Tensions Escalate During "Super Central Bank Week" - Stock Market May Face Record Volatility

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. On Monday, March 16, U.S. stock index futures rose across the board. As of press time, Nasdaq futures up 1.13%, S&P 500 futures up 1.00%, Dow futures up 0.79%.

2. As of press time, Germany’s DAX index increased by 0.60%, the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.58%, France’s CAC 40 gained 0.14%, and Europe’s STOXX 50 increased by 0.39%.

3. WTI crude oil fell 1.43%, trading at $95.46 per barrel. Brent crude declined 0.28%, at $102.85 per barrel.

Middle East Conflict Escalates Amid ‘Super Central Bank Week,’ AI Faith Faces Major Test! Since the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran at the end of February, igniting a new round of Middle East geopolitical turmoil, market volatility has intensified. This week, such rare volatility in recent years may become even more severe. After Trump claimed the U.S. military launched a “fierce airstrike” on Iran’s oil export hub at Kharg Island, tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, with the possibility of Iran taking more aggressive countermeasures. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and forced production cuts by Gulf oil producers could drive international oil prices toward $150 or even $200 per barrel. Meanwhile, “Super Central Bank Week” will keep investors on high alert for market fluctuations, as multiple central banks—including the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia, and Bank of Canada—will release new interest rate decisions and monetary policy guidance amid a macroeconomic environment overshadowed by stagflation pessimism. Additionally, AI faith, which influences global tech stocks, faces a major test this week—NVIDIA’s GTC conference and the Global Optical Communications Conference (OFC) will be held, and memory giant Micron Technology will also release earnings.

“Quadruple Witching” Approaching! Will U.S. Stocks Experience Record Volatility? The “Quadruple Witching” day—when stock index futures and options, as well as individual stock futures and options, all expire—will occur this Friday. Historically, U.S. markets tend to see extreme volatility on this day. With Middle East conflicts unresolved, oil prices high, and derivatives expiring en masse this week, U.S. markets may see record-breaking swings during Quadruple Witching, with global markets following suit. A recent Goldman Sachs report indicates that the current U.S. stock market is at a critical point of “collapse” and “short squeeze,” suggesting that the recent surge in global stock volatility since the U.S./Israel airstrikes on Iran could intensify.

Goldman Sachs Sets the Tone for U.S. Stocks: Earnings Growth Supports Upside, S&P 500 Could Hit 7,600 by Year-End. Goldman Sachs strategists believe U.S. stocks still have room to rise, projecting the S&P 500 could reach 7,600 by the end of 2026, driven by ongoing corporate earnings expansion and moderate economic growth. This forecast is based on in-depth analysis of constituent companies’ earnings prospects—estimating the S&P 500’s earnings per share (EPS) will grow to about $309 in 2026 and further to around $342 in 2027, with annual growth rates of approximately 12% and 10%, respectively. This earnings growth supports the price targets, implying a potential return of about 14% from current levels. The outlook reflects market confidence that corporate profitability will continue to expand despite high interest rates and a slightly tightening financial environment. Technology companies remain the core engine of earnings growth for U.S. stocks.

If Oil Prices Remain High Long-Term, S&P 500 Could Drop 15%? JPMorgan Warns of a “Domino Effect.” JPMorgan Private Bank warns that if oil prices do not fall back, the recent sell-off in the S&P 500 could deepen further. In a client report, analysts suggest that rising oil prices could trigger a “domino effect” in the stock market—persistent high oil prices may increase selling pressure, causing U.S. market declines to spread globally and ultimately impact economic growth. They estimate that if oil remains above $90 per barrel for an extended period, the S&P 500 could see a 10-15% correction, with spillover effects on international and emerging markets.

Inflation Pressures Render 60/40 Portfolio Strategy Ineffective! Wall Street Bigwigs Urge Embrace of Commodities. CIO Peter Bukowal of investment firm One Point BFG Wealth Partners states that rising energy prices and inflation have weakened bonds’ protective role, rendering the traditional 60/40 portfolio strategy ineffective. He notes that bond allocations, which make up 40% of the portfolio, have failed to provide safe-haven protection in recent weeks. The energy price surge driven by Middle East conflicts has heightened inflation expectations, becoming a new dominant factor in global bond markets. For investors seeking alternatives to bonds, Bukowal recommends turning to commodities. Since the start of the 2025 commodities bull market, which initially focused on precious and industrial metals, the rally has expanded to include oil, natural gas, and agriculture—particularly benefiting from disruptions in fertilizer and ammonia supplies.

Gold Faces Rare Bull-Bear Tug-of-War; Direction May Hinge on Powell’s Words! Gold investors face the most critical week of the year. The Federal Reserve will hold meetings on March 17-18. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments this week could cause gold prices to swing sharply in either direction. Over the past two weeks, gold has been under pressure due to a strengthening dollar. As of press time, spot gold hovers around the $5,000 level. JPMorgan analysts describe the current situation as a “collision between geopolitical concerns and a strong dollar rebound.” This rare scenario makes short-term gold price forecasts extremely difficult. Most analysts agree that Powell’s language—whether describing oil price shocks as “transitory” or “persistent”—will be equally important. His wording could move gold prices by hundreds of dollars within a single trading day.

Hormuz Strait Blockade Impacts Global Aluminum Market! Bahrain Aluminum Forced to Cut Production by 19%, Aluminum Prices Could Break $4,000. Due to the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s largest aluminum smelters—Bahrain Aluminum (Alba)—has been forced to implement production cuts, citing difficulties in exporting metals and sourcing raw materials. The company has phased out three major production lines, reducing about 19% of its annual capacity. As a key supplier in the global aluminum industry, Middle East logistics disruptions have become a tangible production loss. Goldman Sachs and other financial institutions warn that if the Strait remains closed and regional inventories deplete, aluminum prices could surge past $4,000 per ton, significantly impacting downstream manufacturing costs worldwide. As of press time, LME aluminum futures are at $3,390 per ton, having touched $3,494.50 intra-day.

NVIDIA (NVDA.US) GTC Conference Kicks Off! Can the AI Leader Maintain Its Dominance? Market Focuses on “Post-Training Era” Strategies. The NVIDIA GTC 2026 conference will be held from March 16-19 in San Jose, California. CEO Jensen Huang will deliver a keynote speech on March 16 at 2 p.m. Eastern Time. Over four days, the conference will showcase NVIDIA’s latest developments in chips, data centers, CUDA software platform, AI agents, and robotics—serving as a critical test of the company’s strategic direction. After delivering unexpectedly strong earnings but without a significant stock rally, investors are eager for reassurance that NVIDIA’s profit-sharing AI ecosystem strategy is paying off. eMarketer analyst Jacob Bourne expects NVIDIA to present an updated full-stack roadmap from Rubin to Feynman, emphasizing reasoning, autonomous AI, networking tech, and AI infrastructure. GF Securities believes this event could be a catalyst not only for NVIDIA but also for the entire semiconductor sector.

Meta (META.US) Plans 20% Layoffs: Using “AI Substitution” to Optimize Workforce and Support Massive Capital Spending. Reports indicate Meta is planning large-scale layoffs, potentially affecting 20% or more of its workforce—around 16,000 jobs. The company aims to offset high AI investments and improve efficiency through AI-assisted employees. It plans to spend up to $6 billion on AI capital expenditures by 2028. According to three insiders, the timing and scale of layoffs are still being finalized. Senior management has recently discussed this plan with other executives and begun planning specific steps. Despite Meta’s push to become an “AI-driven” company, recent setbacks in core model development have increased internal restructuring pressures.

U.S. Retail Sector Shows Signs of Weakness: After Dollar Tree and Walmart, Dollar General (DG.US) Issues Soft Guidance. Dollar General reported Q4 earnings, with revenue up 9% year-over-year to $5.5 billion, beating expectations; adjusted EPS was $2.56, 4 cents above forecasts. The company said sales growth was driven by its low-price strategy resonating with consumers under economic pressure, including attracting higher-income shoppers. However, it issued a mixed outlook for 2026, projecting sales of $20.5–$20.7 billion—slightly below expectations—and adjusted EPS of $6.50–$6.90, roughly in line with forecasts. Like Dollar Tree, Dollar General anticipates a weak full-year sales outlook amid ongoing macroeconomic volatility and cautious consumer spending.

Xiaoniu (NIU.US) Q4 Revenue Surpasses Expectations; Q1 Guidance Signals Strong Growth. Xiaoniu announced Q4 results with revenue of RMB 676.2 million (about $96.7 million), down 17.4% YoY but exceeding estimates by $5.65 million. Adjusted net loss per ADS was RMB 1.1 (about $0.16). Electric scooter sales totaled 172,763 units, down 23.8% YoY, with China sales at 158,782 units (down 12.9%) and international sales at 13,981 units (down 68.4%). Looking ahead, Xiaoniu expects Q1 2026 revenue between RMB 887 million and RMB 1.023 billion, up 30–50% YoY; full-year 2026 sales are forecasted at 1.7–1.9 million units, up approximately 40–60%. As of press time, pre-market trading shows Xiaoniu up over 4%.

Tuesday Morning: XinYe Technology (FINV.US)

Tuesday Pre-Market: GDS Holdings (GDS.US), Tencent Music (TME.US), HUYA (HUYA.US), 36Kr (KRKR.US)