Numerical Analysis of Asset Performance from 2026 to Present: Bitcoin Worst Performer, Crude Oil Best

作者：Coingecko

Compiled by: Felix, PANews

After experiencing turbulence at the end of 2025, Bitcoin continued to fluctuate downward in early 2026. Meanwhile, geopolitical and macroeconomic events drove up the prices of gold, silver, and recently, oil. As cryptocurrencies continue to be adopted by mainstream markets as an asset class, many Wall Street investors may be experiencing their first crypto bear market. Coingecko examines the performance of cryptocurrencies relative to other traditional asset classes at the start of 2026.

With the outbreak of the Iran war, oil prices in 2026 surged faster than all other asset classes.

Since early 2026, oil prices have been gradually rising due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and critical market supply shortages. However, the situation peaked when the US and Israel launched their latest attack on Iran on February 28. Oil prices briefly traded as high as $119.48, up from just $57.41 at the start of the year.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price continued to decline in 2026, making it the worst-performing asset so far. However, since early March, Bitcoin seems to have found support between $65,000 and $75,000, after dropping to a low of $62,800 in early February. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen strong inflows since late February (net inflow of $1.9 billion since February 20, though outflows of $829 million from the start of the year), while Strategy continues its consistent buying pace, having invested $5.6 billion since the beginning of the year.

Cryptocurrencies have shown only moderate correlation with the S&P 500 and gold so far in 2026, perhaps signaling the beginning of a “decoupling” of asset classes.

Since the start of the year, the correlation between total cryptocurrency market cap and the S&P 500 has been 0.49, indicating a moderate positive correlation, similar to 2025 (annual correlation of 0.46). On the other hand, the correlation between cryptocurrencies and gold from the start of the year has turned negative at -0.69, indicating a moderate negative correlation. In 2025, the correlation between crypto and gold was only 0.19, showing weak or no correlation. Overall, cryptocurrencies as an asset class are shedding the long-held view of being purely risk assets, as they decouple from US stocks.

The US stock market, represented by the S&P 500, also faces significant resistance in 2026. Despite increasing investments in AI and generally strong economic and earnings data, the index has actually declined since the start of the year. Geopolitical tensions have undoubtedly played a role, but ongoing uncertainty about AI’s impact on the economy and workforce has also sparked fears of a “SaaS apocalypse.” Since the beginning of the year, the market cap of listed software and SaaS companies has evaporated between $1.3 trillion and $1.5 trillion, with forward P/E ratios and revenue multiples dropping sharply.

Additionally, gold has continued its strong momentum since 2024, rising over 20% so far this year. Gold is traditionally seen as a stable store of value and safe haven, but with prices soaring, it now exhibits higher volatility. Ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic pressures continue to push gold higher, with retail traders and sovereign nations alike rushing to buy.

Related: BTC Options Insights: Why March 20 is a Key Turning Point for Volatility

2026’s performance is starkly different from 2024. For reference, here is how Bitcoin and other asset classes performed in 2024 (published December 2024).

Known as “the magic internet money,” Bitcoin may have become a legitimate investment asset alongside stocks, commodities, and bonds. Over a 10-year period, Bitcoin’s return of 26,931.1% is astonishing. Imagine that an initial $100 investment in 2014 would be worth $26,931.10 today. While these figures are impressive, it’s also important to consider its short-term and long-term performance relative to other assets.

Over the time spans of since the start of 2024, 1 year, 3 years, 5 years, and 10 years, which assets performed the best?

Performance over different time horizons reveals each asset’s strengths and weaknesses. In 2024, Bitcoin was the top performer with a return of 129.0%. Gold followed closely with a 32.2% return, reaffirming its role as a traditional store of value. The S&P 500 remained strong with a 28.3% return. Conversely, oil prices declined, with a return of -0.13%, and US Treasuries provided moderate returns, with 5-year bonds at 5.3% and 10-year bonds at 8.2%.

Over the 1-year period, Bitcoin continued to outperform other assets with a return of 153.1%. Gold returned 34.8%, and the S&P 500 gained 33.1%. These three assets demonstrated strong performance over the past year, indicating market stability. However, bonds are more sensitive to economic changes, with 5-year and 10-year yields at -4.3% and -2.6%, respectively. These figures highlight how bonds fluctuate with interest rates and fiscal policy.

In the 3-year window, the market performance landscape shifted, with bonds gaining favor as economic stability became more important. US Treasuries led with 5-year yields at 267.8% and 10-year yields at 218%. Bitcoin also performed well, with a 79% return, while gold provided a steady 53.1%, offering some safety amid market uncertainty. Oil was the only asset in this period to underperform, with a return of just 6.1%.

Over five years, Bitcoin’s performance was the strongest, with a return of 1,283.6%. The S&P 500 and gold remained stable, with returns of 96.7% and 84.6%, respectively. US Treasuries also performed well, with 5-year yields at 157.1% and 10-year yields at 149.9%. Oil prices increased by only 25.3%, making long-term investments less attractive. This data suggests Bitcoin has significant potential for mid-term gains, while stocks and gold offer steady growth and balance.

Looking at the decade-long span, Bitcoin’s growth rate of 26,931.1% is unmatched, demonstrating its enormous potential for early investors. Although other assets’ returns are far lower, they still provide stable income, such as the S&P 500 at 193.3% and gold at 125.8%. US Treasuries also maintain value, with 5-year yields at 157.1% and 10-year yields at 86.8%. Oil’s return of only 4.3% lags behind other assets.

This decade of data shows Bitcoin as the ultimate high-growth asset, while gold, bonds, and stocks offer safer, lower-return alternatives for risk-averse investors. However, Bitcoin was still a relatively new asset at the time, with a market cap much smaller than other assets. Its smaller base allowed for faster growth.

Has Bitcoin’s volatility been high over the past decade?

Over the past ten years, Bitcoin’s massive gains have been accompanied by significant volatility. Its lowest price was $172.15, and its highest soared to $103,679. The chart clearly shows Bitcoin’s cyclical nature, coinciding with halving events roughly every four years. During these ten years, Bitcoin experienced two “bull” cycles, in 2017-2018 and 2020-2021, and is currently in one. At the end of each cycle, Bitcoin’s price often crashes below 70% of its peak, making its volatility quite high. This extreme volatility highlights its high-risk, high-reward profile, attractive to growth-focused investors but challenging for those seeking stability.

Does Bitcoin’s performance correlate with other assets?

Beyond volatility, analyzing Bitcoin’s correlation with major assets like the S&P 500 and gold can further reveal its unique behavior. Correlation analysis shows how Bitcoin either moves in tandem with or diverges from traditional markets:

Bitcoin and the S&P 500

Over the years, Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 (shown by the blue line) has been unstable, generally near zero before 2018. This low correlation indicates that during this period, Bitcoin’s behavior was largely independent of the stock market. However, since 2020, this correlation has increased, with Bitcoin and stocks moving more in sync during major economic events like the COVID-19 pandemic. Price correlation also aligns with Bitcoin’s rallies in 2018, 2020, and 2024.

Bitcoin and Gold

Regarding gold, Bitcoin’s correlation tends to be inversely related to its correlation with the S&P 500. This suggests that although both are viewed as alternative investments, Bitcoin and gold (shown by the green line) often move independently. Additionally, the correlation tends to move inversely with Bitcoin’s price: when Bitcoin rises, correlation drops, and vice versa. This indicates that when Bitcoin underperforms, investors tend to shift toward gold. During macroeconomic events, correlations can spike temporarily, reflecting similar market reactions. Nonetheless, Bitcoin has yet to fully establish itself as “digital gold.”