After-hours positive news! A-shares experience a deep V-shaped rebound, three government departments release major policies, and a 200 billion giant surges to boost the semiconductor sector.

How does the easing of US-Iran conflict impact the rebound of tech stocks?

Over the weekend, the US-Iran conflict further escalated, coupled with institutional strategies generally emphasizing “stagflation expectations” and being bearish on the tech sector. Tech stocks, which had already underperformed the market in the past two weeks, were further pressured over the weekend, pushing sentiment to a freezing point. Today, after the market opened, defensive sectors like liquor and agriculture at low levels strengthened, while tech and non-ferrous metals plunged. Near the close of the morning session, storage stocks gained strength, boosting tech sentiment. At midday, Huahong Semiconductor surged, rising over 16% at one point, further supporting a tech rebound. However, due to oil prices remaining high, the market is cautious about fully shifting to risk-on, so further gains are hesitant. The situation tonight is critical to see if tensions ease.

The situation remains volatile, and even the US, Iran, and major institutions are uncertain about how the US-Iran issue will develop. As retail investors, it’s best not to predict or bet unilaterally. A better strategy is to maintain a neutral position, monitor the developments (especially key signals of de-escalation), and respond accordingly. Once a turning point signal appears, it’s wise to trust it first. In the short term, there’s no need to be overly pessimistic; oil prices are not yet indicating stagflation or recession (more narrative-driven). Short-term improvements depend on whether neutral countries like India can resume some passage. Undoubtedly, the longer the delay, the greater the tail risk of a breakout. This risk stems not only from fundamentals but also from crowded positions. The Nasdaq has fallen to the lower end of its oscillation range; a break below could trigger more selling.

Now, let’s look at today’s major news:

• There are some positive signals in the US-Iran conflict today:

Two liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) ships flying Indian flags and operated by Indian shipping companies recently successfully crossed the Strait of Hormuz and are now heading to India, expected to arrive at Indian ports within a few days.

According to reports, Iranian Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian was interviewed by CBS’s “Face the Nation.” Regarding Iran’s nuclear program, Abdollahian stated that before the US and Israel initiated war, Iran had already made significant concessions in indirect nuclear negotiations with the US, offering to dilute uranium enrichment to 60% to demonstrate that Iran has no intention of seeking nuclear weapons.

• After storage chips and packaging, the semiconductor industry chain may face a new wave of price hikes. Mature process wafer foundries like UMC, World Advanced, and Powerchip are expected to raise prices starting as early as April, with increases of up to 10% or more.

Additionally, there are reports about Huahong’s 7nm advanced process. During the midday session, Huahong surged, rising over 16%, leading to a rebound in the semiconductor sector, with Damingli and GigaDevice hitting the daily limit.

• Analyst Guo Mingchi’s latest supply chain survey shows that after Nvidia invested in Groq, the shipment forecast for LPU (Low Power Units) has been significantly upgraded. Total shipments are expected to reach 4 to 5 million units from 2026 to 2027. To maintain the ultra-low latency advantage during inference decoding, Nvidia plans to increase the number of LPUs per cabinet from the current 64 to 256. The new architecture cabinets are expected to start mass production in Q4 of this year, with shipments in 2026 and 2027 estimated at about 300 to 500 units and 15,000 to 20,000 units, respectively. Stimulated by this news, the PCB sector strengthened during the midday session.

• Reports indicate that the US government plans to announce the formation of a “Hormuz Strait Escort Alliance” soon.

• Reports suggest that Alibaba is expected to launch a new enterprise-level AI Agent application as early as this week. Developed by the DingTalk team, the app aims to provide powerful agent capabilities, assisting enterprises in automating operations on computers, browsers, and cloud servers, with built-in security features to protect corporate data privacy.

• The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on conducting pilot projects for hydrogen energy applications. It states that by 2030, hydrogen energy will be scaled in urban clusters across multiple fields, with the terminal hydrogen price reduced to below 25 yuan per kilogram, aiming for around 15 yuan in some advantageous regions; the national fuel cell vehicle fleet will double compared to 2025, reaching about 100,000 vehicles.

• Michael Burry, the real-life inspiration for “The Big Short” and a benchmark in contrarian investing on Wall Street, posted on social media expressing optimism about the Hang Seng Tech Index: Over the past few years, stocks related to Hong Kong tech companies have experienced significant declines and valuation compression, but their revenues and profits have remained steadily growing. This extreme divergence between valuation and fundamentals creates a historic investment opportunity. Today, Hong Kong stocks surged, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising nearly 3%.

Finally, a brief look at the market: As of the close, the Shanghai Composite fell 0.26%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.41%; the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index increased by 1.45%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index gained 2.69%.

By industry, food and beverages, electronics, retail, beauty and personal care, and transportation led gains, while steel, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and utilities lagged.

Risk reminder:

Stock markets carry risks; investments should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Readers should think independently.