CITIC Securities: Expect the US CPI year-over-year growth rate to rise in March and April

GateUser-bd883c58 · 2026-03-16T06:37:46+00:00

CITIC Securities research report suggests that the US February CPI fully met expectations, with core inflation showing moderate performance. However, market focus has already shifted away from this somewhat "outdated" data. Under the baseline scenario where Iran conflicts ease or market reactions dull in the coming weeks, CITIC Securities expects the US CPI year-over-year growth rate to rise in March and April respectively due to oil price increases and compensatory rental inflation hikes, and subsequently fluctuate around 3%.

GateUser-bd883c58

2026-03-16 06:37:46

CITIC Securities research report believes that the U.S. February CPI fully met expectations, with core inflation showing moderate performance. However, market focus has shifted away from this somewhat “outdated” data. In the baseline scenario where Iran conflicts ease in a few weeks or market reactions become muted, CITIC Securities expects the year-over-year U.S. CPI growth rate to rise in March and April due to rising oil prices and rent inflation offsetting each other, then fluctuate around 3%.

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