Interpreting the "15th Five-Year Plan" Outline | How to Understand the Four "Growth Points" and Two "Unconventional" Strategies?

On March 13, the “Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China” (hereinafter referred to as the “Outline”) was officially released.

The Daily Economic News reporter noticed that the “Outline” highlights four “growth points” and two “extraordinary measures.”

What are the potential “growth points” for the next five years? What are the development paths? How should we understand the “unconventional layout”? What are the possible ways to implement the “extraordinary measures”? The reporter conducted interviews on these topics.

Driving New Economic Growth Points in Future Industries

“Growth Point” ①

The “Outline” proposes focusing on key areas leading future development, building a comprehensive cultivation system for future industries, and promoting breakthroughs in quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, sixth-generation mobile communication, among others, to become new economic growth points.

Many of these fields are currently in laboratories or early demonstration stages. What are the critical crossing points from “technological breakthroughs” to “industrial explosion” in the next five years?

Wan Zhe, Professor at Beijing Normal University and researcher at the Belt and Road Institute: The core crossing point is technological maturity, while cost reduction is key to industrialization. Specifically, there are five points.

First, achieving breakthroughs in engineering and pilot-scale transformation. The main challenge is solving the bottleneck where laboratory samples cannot be mass-produced on production lines. The approach includes establishing proof-of-concept centers and public pilot platforms to overcome the bottleneck from laboratory samples to large-scale products, focusing on process stability, safety, and product consistency, significantly improving product completion levels. This process is essentially a critical leap from “1 to 10.”

Second, validating scenarios and closing the loop on business models. This involves leveraging scenarios with rigid demand to drive technology, supported by mechanisms like government procurement to provide compensation. Opening up scenarios creates space for trial, error, and iteration for new technologies, while exploring profitable and replicable business models. The ultimate goal is to reduce dependence on policy subsidies, fostering a positive cycle where scenario validation and business models promote each other, thus accelerating application adoption.

Third, achieving full industry chain independence and building an ecosystem. Upstream, focus on breaking bottlenecks in core components, key materials, and high-end equipment; downstream, reduce overall supply chain costs, leverage leading enterprises, cultivate specialized and innovative companies, and form supporting systems and collaborative ecosystems to address the problem of isolated breakthroughs without a complete industry chain.

Fourth, improving standards and regulatory mechanisms. This includes technical standards, product standards, and safety standards, as well as addressing issues like computer ethics and AI ethics, establishing an inclusive yet cautious regulatory model. Fields like brain-computer interfaces, biomanufacturing, and quantum technology pose new social and ethical challenges globally, requiring the development of new standards and regulatory rules to ensure legal and institutional support for large-scale promotion.

Fifth, building a financial support system, developing long-term capital, and improving risk control and sharing mechanisms. Future industries generally have long cycles, high investment, and high risks, which mismatch traditional short-term profit-driven investments. While government-guided funds have played a guiding role, there is a need to introduce long-term capital, expand intellectual property financing, optimize equity structures, and establish investment, financing, and risk management systems suited to future industries. The investment philosophy should emphasize “early, small, hard tech, and soft power,” along with improving R&D risk-sharing mechanisms.

Three Industries Are Expected to Lead the Explosion

Which subfields are most likely to achieve scaled output first?

Wan Zhe: Based on industry maturity, biomanufacturing is expected to be the first to explode. Currently, China accounts for over 70% of the world’s bioprocessing output, with many technologies entering commercialization stages. Looking ahead, fields driven by synthetic biology, such as pharmaceuticals and bio-feed proteins, may rapidly form industry-scale outbreaks.

The new energy storage industry already has a solid foundation for industrialization. By the end of 2024, China’s installed capacity of new energy storage projects will account for over 40% of the global total, ranking first worldwide.

In hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion, hydrogen energy will develop more rapidly, including green hydrogen production and industrial applications, potentially reaching at least a trillion-yuan scale in output value. Large-scale application of nuclear fusion may still require more time.

In embodied intelligence, consumer robots and humanoid robots are currently highly focused, but industrial scenarios will likely be the first to realize commercialization. Based on research, industrial embodied intelligent robots already have a commercial foundation. If core components can be domestically produced within five years to reduce costs, and algorithms improve in generalization, these robots could achieve large-scale deployment in industrial, logistics, and security fields, with relatively mature conditions.

Quantum technology remains in pilot stages, with large-scale applications still requiring time. It is expected that during the “14th Five-Year Plan,” there will be a transition from pilot projects to broader promotion.

Brain-computer interfaces face multiple constraints, including technical, ethical, and regulatory issues, but have potential in medical rehabilitation. International experience shows that the earliest applications are in medical rehab, with market prospects in limb disability and other functional replacement areas. While some segments may see progress, forming a substantial commercial scale will still take time.

6G technology will mainly be in the foundational stage during the “14th Five-Year Plan,” including R&D and standard-setting, with large-scale terminal applications expected to take longer.

Cultivating New Growth Points in Lifestyle Services

“Growth Point” ②

The “Outline” emphasizes focusing on public health, smart elderly care, cultural tourism, and home services to cultivate new growth points in lifestyle services.

“Growth Point” ③

The “Outline” proposes expanding service consumption by relaxing access and integrating business formats, cultivating new growth points in service consumption.

What are the key focus areas for cultivating new growth points in lifestyle services?

Wan Zhe: First, upgrading basic needs—this is the core foundation. It requires aligning with demographic changes, especially aging and declining birthrates, which lead to structural shifts in residents’ needs.

Second, driven by consumption upgrades. Residents’ demands are shifting from “whether they have” to “whether it’s good,” which is a clear trend. Focus areas include smart elderly care, cultural tourism, public health, and home services—these are also current pain points in people’s livelihoods. The key is to address the structural contradiction of excess low-end supply and shortage of high-end quality supply, filling gaps in universal services while meeting residents’ upgraded, diverse, high-quality needs, providing richer and more convenient living services, and creating a positive feedback loop that benefits both people’s livelihoods and economic development.

Third, expanding domestic demand as an engine. Currently, residents’ service consumption accounts for nearly half of overall consumption, becoming a core driver of growth. The CPI (Consumer Price Index) for services has been adjusted this year, with relevant indicators expected to rebound. The development of lifestyle services can unlock trillions in consumption potential, supporting the smooth operation of the domestic cycle, establishing a long-term mechanism for expanding demand, and shaping a new development pattern.

Fourth, industry integration and business model innovation. Digital transformation and new forms of smart economy are continuously breaking down industry barriers and boundaries. Future efforts should deepen industry integration across sectors like culture, tourism, sports, commerce, healthcare, elderly care, and digital services, creating a comprehensive service system covering the entire lifecycle. This includes smart services, community-embedded services, and other forms that enable full coverage over time, extend into lower-tier markets, and leverage digital and intelligent technologies to expand service value, improve efficiency, and increase added value, cultivating lifestyle services as new growth engines.

What are the cultivation paths?

Wan Zhe: Relax market access, eliminate hidden barriers like “glass doors” in the service sector, encourage private capital to enter elderly care, healthcare, cultural tourism, and childcare, and activate diverse operators. Improve mechanisms like government procurement, public-private partnerships, and private-public collaborations, expand high-level opening-up, and introduce advanced international service models and resources. Support service enterprises to grow stronger and foster small and micro businesses, cultivating leading companies.

Deepen business model innovation through digital empowerment, expanding service scenarios. Develop new formats like internet healthcare, smart elderly care, digital tourism, and instant retail, promoting cross-sector integration to meet full lifecycle and market demand.

Optimize supply structures, address supply-demand gaps, especially expanding inclusive services, and promote high-quality services in elderly, children, and primary healthcare sectors.

Advance standardization and branding, improve service commitments and certification systems, build a credit system for the service industry, and enhance consumer safety, trust, and satisfaction.

Strengthen policy support, innovate development models, and provide support in land use, financing, talent, tax incentives, and fiscal subsidies to create a fair and orderly market environment.

Fostering New Growth Points in Mid-to-High-End Consumption

“Growth Point” ④

The “Outline” proposes cultivating new growth points in mid-to-high-end consumption, strengthening traditional brands and national trendy brands, developing peripheral derivative products, and actively promoting “first launch” economy.

Where are the key focus areas for cultivating new growth points in mid-to-high-end consumption?

Wan Zhe: First, aligning with the core trend of consumption upgrading. China’s large-scale market advantage, with the world’s largest middle-income group, means we should meet the demand for quality, branding, culture, and experience consumption, addressing the mismatch between supply and demand at the mid-to-high end, promoting spillover and return of consumption, and satisfying diverse, personalized, and high-end consumer needs with high-quality supply.

Second, upgrading Chinese brands. Upgrading supply-side is the core approach, using traditional brands and trendy domestic brands to shift from “Made in China” to “Created in China” and “Intelligent China,” and to become global innovation centers and Chinese brands. Focus on enhancing the brand premium of domestic brands, strengthening cultural connotations and design capabilities, and cultivating internationally competitive Chinese consumer brands to support growth in mid-to-high-end consumption.

Third, building a virtuous cycle of supply and demand. Upgrading supply and demand should mutually reinforce. High-end consumer demand can drive upstream manufacturing and service industries to extend up the value chain, promoting product innovation, technological upgrades, and business model innovation, forming a dynamic balance of “new demand leading new supply and new supply creating new demand,” thereby upgrading the entire industry and value chain.

Fourth, cultivating new consumption formats and scenarios. Develop new forms like first-launch economy, flagship stores, and peripheral derivatives to stimulate young consumers and expand consumption. Promote the construction of international consumer centers to enhance China’s global market influence. Facilitate visa policies for foreigners in China to attract global consumers, creating a balanced pattern of “bringing in” and “going out” in consumption.

What are the cultivation paths?

Wan Zhe: Implement brand enhancement initiatives, strengthen the domestic brand matrix, accelerate the cultivation of Chinese consumer brands, and improve product quality and brand premium.

Innovate consumption formats and scenarios, develop first-launch and flagship store economies, promote IP commercialization, peripheral derivatives, and customized experiential consumption, and encourage green and digital consumption to stimulate new consumption vitality.

Leverage technology, using AI and big data to improve supply-demand matching, develop flexible production, and enable personalized, efficient, low-cost customization to better meet mid-to-high-end consumer needs.

Optimize consumption infrastructure and environment, upgrade traditional shopping districts, strengthen intellectual property protection, support original designs and trademarks, improve after-sales and consumer rights mechanisms, and create a safe, trustworthy consumption environment.

Promote domestic and international market linkage, enhance China’s influence in global markets, align with international high standards, attract global high-quality consumption resources, support Chinese brands to go global, and expand global marketing networks.

Two “Unconventional” Measures

“Unconventional” ①

The “Outline” emphasizes focusing on strategic key areas and weak links in the supply chain, adopting unconventional measures to push for decisive breakthroughs in core technologies in integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, high-end instruments, basic software, advanced materials, biomanufacturing, and other key fields across the entire chain.

What are the ways to implement these unconventional measures?

Pan Helin, renowned economist and member of the MIIT Information and Communications Economic Expert Committee: Unconventional measures can take various forms.

At the institutional level, leverage new national systems to foster cross-regional, interdisciplinary, and multi-entity collaborative innovation; grant greater autonomy to research entities and offer higher scientific rewards to motivate innovation.

In terms of capital and other factors, fully support technological innovation by promoting full-chain R&D efforts, encouraging upstream and downstream enterprises to collaborate on technical breakthroughs.

“Unconventional” ②

The “Outline” proposes improving the discipline and professional setting adjustment mechanism in higher education, with an unconventional layout for urgently needed disciplines like AI and integrated circuits, and implementing plans for breakthroughs in basic and interdisciplinary sciences.

How to understand the “unconventional layout”?

Pan Helin: The unconventional layout of disciplines supports national strategies from the talent supply side. For example, breaking the routine pace of discipline setup, rapidly increasing the number of university disciplines; driven by industry and enterprise needs, reforming academic programs; increasing interdisciplinary integration and forward-looking talent cultivation.