"Old Deng Stock" Surges Against Market Trend, Trillion-Dollar Giant Kweichow Moutai Rises Over 2%

On March 16, amid fluctuations in the A-share market, the Baijiu sector defied the trend and showed strong performance, becoming the market focus. As of 10:11 AM, the Baijiu sector index rose by over 2%. Among individual stocks, Huangtai Liquor led the gains with a limit-up; Jin Hui Liquor and Jiugui Liquor increased by 5.56% and 3.21%, respectively; the trillion-dollar giant Kweichow Moutai rose over 2%, with its market value returning above 1.8 trillion yuan; stocks like Shede Spirits and Jinzhi Liquor also followed suit.

On the news front, on March 16, the National Bureau of Statistics released data on the national economic operation for January-February 2026, showing a steady recovery in consumption. During this period, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.8% year-on-year, with retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles growing by 3.7% year-on-year.

Notably, retail sales of tobacco and alcohol products above designated size related directly to Baijiu consumption reached 158.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, significantly leading the overall growth of social consumer retail sales, indicating strong terminal sales resilience for alcohol products. Meanwhile, the added value of the “Manufacture of Alcoholic Beverages, Beverages, and Refined Tea” above designated size grew by 4.3% year-on-year, outperforming the overall growth rate of 6.3% in the national industrial added value of large-scale industries.

In fact, the adjustment in the Baijiu industry had been ongoing for several years prior. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2025, Baijiu production was 3.549 billion liters, down 12.1% year-on-year, marking ten consecutive years of decline. From a profitability perspective, the total revenue of 20 listed A-share Baijiu companies in the first three quarters of 2025 was 317.779 billion yuan, down 5.90% year-on-year; net profit was 122.571 billion yuan, down 6.93%.

Industrial Securities believes that currently (Baijiu) sector holdings remain clean, supported by dividend yields, with limited downside risk. As CPI and PPI continue to improve, the sector is expected to enter a traditional consumer market characterized by moderate inflation, and the sector’s fundamentals are expected to improve, opening upward space. During this adjustment period, it is advisable to focus on high-quality leading companies with resilient sales, thorough inventory clearance, and good channel quality.

Yuekai Securities suggests that by 2026, the Baijiu industry is at the intersection of the end of a significant adjustment and the beginning of a new cycle. The current sector exhibits “three lows and one high” (low expectations, low valuation, low holdings, high dividends), offering a relatively high safety margin. From a long-term perspective, companies with brand barriers and stable cash flow may have a relative advantage. This recovery is likely to be a structural “K-shaped” divergence, where only leading liquor companies with strong branding, efficient channels, and active sales can succeed in the industry reshuffle.

CMB Securities points out that after years of adjustment, the Baijiu industry has entered a year of supply, demand, and price stabilization in 2026. Currently, sector stock prices have fallen back to the pessimistic expectations before the Spring Festival, providing a bottom-positioned investment opportunity. As the first-quarter earnings expectations become clearer, emotional suppression factors are expected to be alleviated, and the consumer sector may present investment opportunities.

(Note: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate at their own risk.)