The drop in Bitcoin's Short-Term Holder (STH) Supply in Profit below 50% is a significant on-chain indicator that often marks a transition into bear market conditions or a major cycle bottom.

Bearish Context: As of March 13, 2026, the percentage of STH supply in profit has fallen below 50%, meaning over half of recent buyers (those who bought within the last 155 days) are currently "underwater".

Market Sentiment: This threshold indicates that the majority of newer market participants are facing unrealized losses, which historically increases the likelihood of panic selling or "capitulation".

Early Bear Signal: Analysts from CryptoQuant have noted that when "Supply in Loss" (the inverse of supply in profit) approaches the 40–45% range, it typically aligns with the early stages of a bear market.

Bottom Indicator: While bearish in the immediate term, Glassnode data suggests this level can also signal market bottoms. Selling pressure often exhausts itself at these levels because remaining holders become unwilling to realize further losses.
Recovery Precondition: Sustained price recovery generally requires this metric to flip back above 50% to restore positive momentum among the most active trading cohort.

Disclaimer: Post is manual but image is AI

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