2026-03-15 14:36:35

Circle Position Liquidation Record and Cause Analysis

Trading Operations:
Liquidated Circle positions in two tranches at prices of 83 and 112.
Personal reasons for liquidation (all subjective views):
1. Disconnect between narrative and reality:
Circle's recent rally has been driven by the AI Agent payment narrative, but AI Agent payment is still in a very early stage. USDC issuance volume being truly driven by AI Agent trading volume is impossible within less than 2-3 years. What's being traded now is just optimistic expectations about AI.
2. Market positioning limitations:
Stablecoin payments are only a niche market for AI Agents. Stablecoin payments will mainly be used in cross-border scenarios, while for AI Agents, local payment scenarios represent the largest opportunity. The most rational approach for local payments is combining fiat currency + local applications. Cross-border Agent payment scenarios are not the primary problem being solved currently.
3. Overvaluation:
Circle's current market capitalization has reached $28 billion, but compared to net profits of over $100 million annually, it's too expensive. I believe the current price already reflects a valuation scenario where USDC issuance volume grows 10-fold.

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