If history is an indication

- Feb 24 2022 Russia attacks Ukraine
- Feb 28 2026 US / Israel attack Iran
Historically, Bitcoin follows a specific pattern during new conflicts: an initial sell off, a bottoming out, and a relief bounce.
If the hostilities persist, however, the price typically resumes its downward trajectory and I believe we are currently navigating the temporary bounce phase.
Since the Iran strikes began on February 28, Bitcoin has outperformed both Gold and the S&P 500. It is proving itself as the ultimate exit ramp from the fiat system.
However, the move is driven by survival, not just speculation. In the Middle East, people are shifting life savings into private wallets to bypass collapsing banks.
This isn't just a trade; it's a hedge against systemic failure. Bitcoin is holding the line, but its volatility remains a weapon for those patient enough to wait for the final shakeout.
Iran is weaponizing the Strait of Hormuz to dismantle the Petrodollar. By demanding Yuan for oil passage, they are striking at the 50 year old deal that underpins US debt and military power.
While the West burns through strategic reserves to keep prices down, China sits on a massive 1.3 billion barrel strategic reserve.
This creates a permanent floor for inflation, meaning the Fed has no room to cut rates. Imo, expensive energy will continue to drain liquidity required for a crypto run.
Markets are entering a state of panic, as BRICS nations flee the dollar. Bitcoin thrives outside this system and will ultimately benefit, but the transition period is often violent.
During systemic shifts, investors sell what they can to cover what they must in margin calls. The current uncertainty is the primary reason to wait.
Being bullish on the asset doesn't mean being a liquidity exit for others. If Bitcoin is destined for $150k+ it is better to pay a premium at $80k for a confirmed trend than to buy at $70k and watch it retrace to $45k.
Buy the trend, not the hope.
Stay liquid!