Can we get New Ao Energy arbitrage going now?

Market changes are happening too quickly, and there aren't many low-risk opportunities left.
A few days ago, I saw an arbitrage opportunity with Dongfeng, and I participated a little on the last day.
Then I looked into possible arbitrage stocks, and it seems only XinAo Energy remains.
Recently, the RMB has been appreciating, and oil and gas prices are also rising. The potential upside is there, but the timing is uncertain. I’ve set up a watch position for now.

Code 2688.HK 600803.SH
Abbreviation XinAo Energy XinAo Shares
Real-time Price 68.35 22.67
Currency HKD RMB
Hong Kong Dollar Exchange Rate 0.8816
Hong Kong Stock Issue Price 25.71
Break-even -30% 18.00
Cash Payment 24.5
Stock Payment 2.9427
Stock Value 52.97

Offer Value 77.47

Potential Upside 13.3%

AI summarized the process:
As of March 13, 2026, XinAo Energy’s privatization progress is as follows:
Completed Steps
Shareholder Approval: On May 28, 2025, XinAo Shares (A-shares, code 600803) shareholders’ meeting approved the privatization of XinAo Energy (HK stock code 02688) with over 99.9% approval, meeting the shareholder approval prerequisite.
Domestic Regulatory Filing: On August 22 and December 22, 2025, the company completed foreign investment registration procedures with the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce.
Foreign Exchange Registration: On December 28, 2025, the company completed foreign exchange registration with the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, marking the completion of the domestic regulatory approval process.

Remaining Steps
HKEX Approval: The company needs to obtain the Hong Kong Stock Exchange’s Listing Committee’s preliminary approval for XinAo Shares’ H-share listing, and the approval must not be revoked. As of March 2026, this approval has not yet been granted. The review process is affected by market queueing, and the original plan to issue the approval documents by the end of January 2026 has been delayed.
CSRC Approval: The company needs approval or filing from the China Securities Regulatory Commission and other relevant authorities for XinAo Shares’ H-share listing.
XinAo Energy Shareholder Vote: Independent shareholders of XinAo Energy must vote on the privatization plan at a special general meeting, requiring more than two-thirds approval to pass.
Currently, the privatization process is at a critical approval stage with HKEX and CSRC. Market expectations suggest it may be completed in the first half of 2026, but uncertainties remain. If approved, XinAo Energy will delist, and XinAo Shares will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as H-shares, achieving a dual “A+H” platform structure.