BMW's 2026 Suspense: Can the Chinese Market Wait for the New Generation?

Author | Wang Xiaojun

Editor | Zhou Zhiyu

BMW’s 2025 performance faces pressure, but it secures the global luxury car sales crown for the second consecutive year. The real test comes in 2026—new generation models must prove themselves in the Chinese market.

According to financial reports, BMW Group achieved total revenue of €133.453 billion in 2025 (about RMB 1.06 trillion), down 6.3% year-over-year; pre-tax profit was €10.236 billion, down 6.7%; net profit was €7.451 billion, down 3.0%.

Revenue, pre-tax profit, and net profit all declined year-over-year, but the decreases are not symmetrical. However, deeper analysis shows BMW’s profit foundation remains solid.

The group’s pre-tax profit margin stayed at 7.7%, the same as 2024. The decline in net profit was much smaller than the revenue drop, indicating BMW did not significantly cut prices to maintain sales volume, and vehicle profitability remains intact.

BMW officially revealed that in 2025, it reduced costs by €2.5 billion, helping to withstand pressures from raw materials and tariffs.

In 2025, the three German luxury brands—Mercedes-Benz, Audi, and BMW—showed clear differentiation: Mercedes’ global sales fell 10%, Audi dropped 2.9%, while BMW slightly increased by 0.5%. Holding onto market share in a year when competitors lost volume is BMW’s most notable achievement in 2025.

Regionally, BMW’s global performance in 2025 was characterized by significant regional divergence.

The European market performed strongly, with annual sales surpassing one million units, reaching 1,016,360 vehicles, up 7.3%. The Americas also saw steady growth of 5.7%, with 508,221 units delivered. The combined sales of Europe and North America increased by nearly 100,000 units, just enough to offset the volume lost in China.

In contrast, the Chinese market delivered only 625,527 units in 2025, down 12.5% year-over-year, marking the second consecutive decline and a deeper drop than in 2024. The quarterly decline in Q4 widened to 15.9%, indicating weak end-of-year sales momentum.

China’s market has shrunk for two consecutive years, losing nearly 200,000 units, returning to 2017–2018 levels. The reasons are clear: in the RMB 300,000–500,000 price range, brands like Wenjie, Li Auto, and NIO are fiercely competing with BBA. Meanwhile, BMW’s main SUVs—X3 and X1—are at the end of their product cycle, with no new models ready before the next generation.

However, it’s worth noting that BMW’s sedan lineup in China remains relatively resilient—models like the 3 Series and 5 Series are growing against the trend, indicating that brand loyalty in the sedan segment can withstand price wars.

Regarding electrification, BMW’s progress is steady but has not yet become a major growth driver.

Electrification is another underwhelming figure. In 2025, BMW’s global pure electric vehicle sales reached 442,000 units, a 3.6% increase year-over-year, which is modest amid the rapid industry shift toward new energy vehicles. The reason is straightforward: current pure electric models are still based on shared platforms with internal combustion engines; the truly new-generation dedicated electric architecture has yet to scale up. In other words, BMW’s electrification achievements will only truly begin with the delivery of the Neue Klasse platform.

For BMW, 2025 is a year of preparation, while 2026 will be the year when the new generation strategy is fully implemented.

Official data shows that in Europe, one in three new BMW electric orders is for the new-generation iX3—a recently launched model capturing one-third of orders. A long-wheelbase version of the iX3, designed specifically for China, will begin production in Shenyang in 2026, seen as a key move to reverse the downturn in China.

From a technological standpoint, the new-generation platform is competitive. Breakthroughs like the sixth-generation eDrive electric drive technology, 800-volt high-voltage architecture, and the driving control superbrain will be integrated into upcoming models. The charging performance of 300 km range in 10 minutes is already among the industry’s top tier. Meanwhile, the second new-generation model—the all-electric BMW i3—will debut globally on March 18, expanding the product lineup. An insider close to BMW said the long-wheelbase version of the new-generation BMW iX3 will debut at the Beijing Auto Show and go on sale within the year.

This means 2026 will also be a big year for BMW’s product lineup.

According to plans, BMW Group’s three brands—BMW, MINI, and BMW Motorrad—will launch about 20 new or facelifted models, covering nearly all market segments. The facelift 7 Series will also debut globally at the Beijing Auto Show, equipped with the iDrive X system and panoramic view display.

Industry insiders told Wall Street Journal that BMW’s 2025 financials show that, while the core of fuel vehicles remains stable and profitable, China has become the biggest variable and risk. Although the title of global sales champion is prestigious, the 62,550 units sold in China is a wake-up call.

Whether the new generation can turn things around will be evident soon. The long-wheelbase iX3 will debut at the Beijing Auto Show in 2026 and be on sale within the year. Its pricing and initial order volume will be the first real test. The window for BMW is quite clear: China’s market continues to lose volume every year, and dealer patience is not unlimited. Consumers won’t wait forever for a “coming soon” model. In 2026, the new generation must move from PPT presentations into showrooms.

For this century-old luxury automaker, 2026 will be not only the year of new products but also a critical test of its resilience, localization capabilities, and strategic execution.

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