March 13, 2026

Saw the news today. Due to crude oil prices skyrocketing, around the 20th of this month, domestic refined oil prices will experience another round of increases. The impact of the US-Iran war on ordinary people is gradually amplifying. Over the past two days, there have been reports of Iran wanting to negotiate, but the conditions they're opening are rather unreasonable. Therefore, this matter is currently far from simple. As long as the Strait of Hormuz hasn't completely opened for navigation, crude oil prices cannot stabilize.

In the short term, this may not have a particularly large impact, but as time extends, it will eventually transmit to the inflation side. In other words, it will introduce new destabilizing factors to the future economic landscape. Warren Buffett's fund is holding record-high levels of cash again. As an ordinary person, I can't figure out what he's defending against. Perhaps only when some kind of black swan event causes a US stock market crash would we once again marvel at the old gentleman's foresight.

The rhythm in the crypto space can be optimistic in the short term, but this rebound intensity actually shows traces of weak capital momentum. In terms of the broader direction, for major players behind Bitcoin who chose to start selling from 100k, they probably won't complete their accumulation at 70k. This is a reality we must face—meaning we can only expect a rebound rally going forward, not a reversal.

Why do I say the major players started selling from 100k? There's evidence to trace before—multiple oscillations in the 100k-120k range, forming a distribution zone. Therefore, the average selling price can be simplified to 110k. From an accumulation perspective, the cost price needs to be below 60k to be reasonable. Of course, any price won't be achieved in one step, just like before...