Analysis: Bitcoin Selling Pressure Declines to Cycle Lows, On-Chain Models Indicate Market Entering Accumulation Phase

Odaily Planet Daily reports: On-chain analysis models show that Bitcoin’s current network selling pressure has dropped to a cycle low, and the market is clearly in an accumulation phase. The Sell-side Risk Ratio last triggered a “distribution signal” in December 2024, when Bitcoin was around $107,000. Since then, this signal has not reappeared.

Data indicates that current selling pressure has fallen to about one-sixth of the cycle average, with related indicators even replicating levels seen during the 2022–2023 bear market (when BTC was approximately $16,000 to $20,000). The model divides this cycle into two phases: a “strong distribution phase” from November to December 2024, with prices between $64,000 and $107,000; and the current re-entry into the “accumulation phase.”

The Sell-side Risk Ratio measures traders’ profit-taking activity relative to the network’s cost basis. When the indicator exceeds the adaptive upper threshold, it triggers a distribution signal, indicating sellers dominate the market. When it falls below the lower threshold, it triggers an accumulation signal, indicating very low selling pressure. Data shows that the distribution signal in this cycle lasted 37 days, covering the main range where BTC rose from $64,000 to $107,000. Since the signal ended on December 17, 2024, the market has gone about 449 days without another distribution signal.

Meanwhile, the 180-day rolling average of the Sell-side Risk Ratio has decreased from 3,210 to 1,913 over the past 60 days, a drop of 1,297 points, continuing at about 20 points per day. Historically, the range of 1,500 to 2,000 has corresponded to selling pressure levels during 2019 (BTC around $3,000–$6,000) and the mid-bear market of 2022–2023 (BTC around $16,000–$20,000). However, current BTC prices remain in the $67,000 to $72,000 range, showing a clear structural divergence.

Analysis indicates that early low-price accumulators have taken large profits in the $64,000 to $107,000 range, while holders who did not sell within this range are now continuing to hold. The model suggests that only when Bitcoin’s price re-establishes above $100,000 to $110,000 with significant profit-taking could a new distribution signal be triggered.

Overall, on-chain indicators show that the distribution phase of this cycle has ended, and the market has re-entered an accumulation state. The model’s overall assessment is “neutral leaning towards accumulation,” but without new price catalysts, the market may face a prolonged period of sideways consolidation. (Axeladlerjr)