Goldman Sachs Raises Near-Term Oil Price Target Again: Brent at $100 in March, $85 in April

The Strait of Hormuz blockade combined with Middle East conflicts is impacting the market. Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude oil prices to surpass triple digits on average in March but warns that prices may gradually decline in the second half of the year.

According to Reuters, Goldman Sachs stated on Friday (March 13) that, due to the Iran conflict and damage to Middle Eastern energy infrastructure, as well as disruptions in Hormuz Strait transportation, the average Brent crude oil price in March is expected to exceed $100 per barrel, with April’s average dropping back to $85.

Although short-term oil prices are under upward pressure, Goldman Sachs remains relatively cautious about the full-year outlook. If oil flow disruptions do not worsen further, it expects Brent crude oil prices to gradually fall back to the low $70s within the year.

As of press time, Brent crude futures are trading at $100.13 per barrel, up about 8% this week. On Monday, oil prices briefly touched $119.50 per barrel, the highest level since mid-2022, with market volatility significantly increasing due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts and rising concerns over energy supply disruptions.

Short-term high levels, with a downward trend in the second half

Goldman Sachs pointed out on Friday that since the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran began on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz has effectively been closed. This route carries about one-fifth of global oil and natural gas supplies, and its disruption poses a direct and profound impact on the global energy market.

According to Goldman Sachs estimates, if the Hormuz Strait remains disrupted for two months, Brent crude could surge to $93, more than 30% above the baseline target of $71.

Analysis indicates that this scenario reveals the potential upward pressure on oil prices from current geopolitical risks.

Despite short-term upward pressure on oil prices, Goldman Sachs remains relatively cautious about the full-year outlook. The firm expects that if the disruption in oil flow does not worsen further, Brent crude prices will gradually fall back to the low $70s within the year.

However, Goldman Sachs also warns of upside risks: if the supply disruption lasts longer than expected, prices could reach higher peaks and remain elevated into the end of the year.

This is Goldman Sachs’ latest move in repeatedly raising its oil price forecasts.

On Thursday (March 12), the bank raised its Q4 2026 Brent crude oil price forecast from $66 to $71 per barrel, also adjusting its WTI crude oil forecast for Q4 upward—from $62 to $67 per barrel, aligning with the Brent adjustment.

According to Wallstreetcn, Goldman Sachs noted that if Hormuz Strait flows remain low into late March, oil prices are likely to trend upward during this period, “until the market is confident that a long-term disruption is unlikely.”

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