US Treasury Volatility Surges to Nine-Month High, "Fear Index" Climbs to Highest Level Since June Last Year

MarsBitNews · 2026-03-13T06:22:07+00:00

On March 13, due to escalating war concerns in Iran intensifying inflation worries, volatility in the U.S. Treasury market surged significantly, with the ICE BofA MOVE index reaching a nine-month high. Rising oil prices impacted real returns, traders reduced bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, 30-year Treasury yields rose, and investors faced stagflation uncertainty.

MarsBitNews

2026-03-13 06:22:07

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Mars Finance News: On March 13, U.S. market volatility surged to a nine-month high amid escalating tensions in Iran and inflation concerns, disrupting traders’ expectations of the Federal Reserve’s policy path. The ICE BofA MOVE Index (commonly known as the “fear gauge” of the bond market) rose to its highest level since June last year, as rising oil prices intensified inflation worries, undermining the real returns of U.S. Treasuries and reducing their safe-haven appeal. Both U.S. President Trump and Iran have shown provocative postures in the conflict, adding uncertainty to the duration of the ongoing tension. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield, sensitive to inflation and government spending dynamics, has risen to its highest level in a month, while traders have reduced bets on any rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026. Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management, said, “As bond investors, we need to start thinking from a stagflation perspective, which always brings significant uncertainty. Therefore, from a volatility standpoint, I need to be compensated.”

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