Trump Administration Launches Tariff "Plan B" Following Supreme Court Ruling; Multiple 301 Investigations May Be Rolled Out Consecutively

Reuters Finance APP has learned that after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled some tariffs illegal, the Trump administration is accelerating the rollout of new tariff policies to restore tariff revenue. The U.S. government announced the first step of the new tariff strategy on Thursday evening, with more measures expected to be introduced in the coming week.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced that, under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act, the U.S. will initiate an investigation into “structural overcapacity and manufacturing issues” in manufacturing. The investigation will cover major trading partners including the European Union, Singapore, Switzerland, Norway, Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam, Mexico, Japan, and India.

Notably, some key trading partners such as Canada and the UK are not included in the investigation list. However, Monica Gorman, Managing Director of Crowley Global Advisors, stated that this should not be simply understood as these countries being excluded from tariffs. She expects the U.S. government may launch multiple, even overlapping, Section 301 investigations simultaneously.

Trade lawyers revealed that another investigation into forced labor issues could be launched as early as this week. This investigation would target countries with forced labor problems and may also involve imports of goods produced with such labor.

Analysts note that the tariffs resulting from the new investigation are unlikely to replicate the previous tariff structure overturned by the courts, and their impact on industries and companies may differ. This means importers need to reassess potential risks and conduct new supply chain analyses.

According to procedures, the Section 301 investigation will open for public comment on March 17, with the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) planning a hearing on May 5. Following that, tariff relief measures may be implemented. Trade lawyers expect the new tariff policies to be announced around mid-July, close to the expiration of the temporary 10% Section 122 tariffs implemented after the Supreme Court ruling.

Consulting firms estimate that the new round of tariffs may be more sustainable, but companies still have time to prepare for potential policy changes.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions and economic conditions could also influence the pace of tariff policy implementation. Especially with the Iran conflict causing supply chain disruptions and potentially pushing up inflation, this may limit the government’s ability to further increase tariffs in the short term.

Gorman stated, “It all depends on inflation and price trends over the next two months.”

Additionally, importers are currently facing another significant issue: tariff refunds. Many companies have already filed protests or lawsuits to recover tariffs paid earlier. Industry insiders are closely watching whether the U.S. government will challenge the ruling of the U.S. Court of International Trade, which requires U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to establish a tariff refund mechanism by April 20.