Iran's Supreme Leader Issues First Statement Saying "Will Not Give Up on Revenge"! One US Military Tanker Shot Down, All Crew Members Killed

On March 12th Eastern Time, the three major U.S. stock indices all closed lower, after Iran’s new Supreme Leader made his first statement, shattering hopes for a quick de-escalation of the war, which caused oil prices to surge, intensified market concerns about inflation, and prompted investors to sell off stocks heavily.

U.S. Stocks Plummet Across the Board

All three major indices fell more than 1.5%, with widespread selling. Except for the energy sector and some defensive stocks, most sectors experienced significant declines.

By the close, the Dow dropped 739.42 points, down 1.56%, to 46,677.85; the Nasdaq fell 404.16 points, down 1.78%, to 22,311.98; the S&P 500 declined 103.22 points, down 1.52%, to 6,672.58.

Oil prices surged again sharply. By the end of the day, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for April delivery on the NYMEX jumped 9.72%, to $95.73 per barrel; London Brent crude for May delivery rose 9.22%, to $100.46 per barrel.

Major tech stocks declined, with Nvidia down 1.55%, Amazon down 1.47%, Tesla down 3.14%, Meta down 2.55%, Apple down 1.94%, Microsoft down 0.75%, and Google down 1.67%.

The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 1.03%. Most popular Chinese concept stocks declined: Xiaopeng Motors down 4.7%, Li Auto and Tencent down over 2%, Alibaba down 1.5%, Pinduoduo down 1.28%, NIO up 1.46%, XPeng up 3.6%, and Fangdd Network up 16.4%.

Iran’s New Supreme Leader: No Giving Up on Revenge

Open New Fronts When Necessary

According to CCTV News, Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Muqtada al-Sadr, delivered his first statement on the 12th via national television, mainly focusing on domestic unity, external conflicts, regional relations, and mourning the late leader Ali Khamenei.

In his speech, Muqtada al-Sadr first expressed condolences for Ali Khamenei’s passing and said that succeeding him carries great responsibility. He emphasized that a key tradition of Iran’s revolutionary leadership is relying on the people, highlighting their vital role in governance and wartime.

He called for social unity, continued participation in national affairs, and stressed strengthening social mutual aid during difficult times. He also encouraged the public to actively participate in the upcoming “Jerusalem Day” events.

Regarding the current situation, Muqtada al-Sadr thanked the Iranian military and resistance forces, stating they prevented enemies from controlling or dividing Iran. He also said Iran will continue to use strategic measures, including blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and open new fronts if necessary.

On regional issues, he urged neighboring countries to close U.S.-used military bases within their borders and clarified that Iran’s strikes target only military facilities, not the countries themselves. He reiterated Iran’s desire to maintain friendly relations with neighbors.

Muqtada al-Sadr also expressed condolences to families of war victims and the injured, promising medical and economic compensation for those affected. He vowed to hold enemies accountable and seek revenge for the fallen.

On the 12th, Iran’s Supreme Leader Muqtada al-Sadr posted four personal photos on social media. In the photos, he appears relaxed, one showing him among a crowd, another reading indoors. The specific time and place of the photos have not been disclosed.

U.S. Energy Secretary: “Not Ready Yet” to Escort

According to Xinhua News Agency, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wray said in an interview with CNBC on the 12th that the U.S. is currently “not ready” to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.

Wray stated, “(Escort) will be implemented soon, but not yet,” adding, “We are not ready now. All our military assets are currently focused on destroying Iran’s offensive capabilities and related manufacturing industries.”

Previously, President Trump said that if needed, the U.S. military would escort oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. However, multiple sources on the 10th revealed that since the U.S. launched military strikes on Iran, ships and oil tankers near the Strait have requested escort almost daily, but the U.S. has refused citing high risks.

According to foreign media, Iran’s military warned the U.S. on the 11th that “prepare for $200 per barrel oil prices, because oil prices depend on regional security, which you are destroying.”

In response, Wray said that despite oil tankers still being stranded in the Strait due to the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, it’s unlikely that global oil prices will reach $200 per barrel. He also said the government has not discussed a ban on refined oil exports.

Wray added, “I won’t speculate on short-term trading because it’s more driven by psychological factors than actual oil flows.” When asked whether the U.S. would implement a refined oil export ban, he said the Trump administration has not discussed it.

Trump Calls for Immediate Rate Cut

On March 12th Eastern Time, President Trump again urged Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates, claiming that the global economic impact of the Iran conflict requires immediate action.

Trump posted on social media: “Where is Jerome Powell, the always-too-late Fed Chair? He should cut rates immediately, not wait until the next meeting!”

The Fed is scheduled to hold a monetary policy meeting on March 17th. Although recent U.S. inflation data shows overall price growth remains manageable, tensions in the Middle East have sharply pushed up oil prices and threaten global supply chains. Public dissatisfaction with living costs is rising, which is unfavorable for Republicans’ prospects of maintaining control of Congress in the midterm elections in November.

Markets generally expect the Fed to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged, but the latest economic projections (SEP) will be closely watched for signals of whether inflation expectations are being raised.

Beneath the rising oil prices, markets are realizing that the likelihood of a rate cut by the Fed later this year is rapidly decreasing.

Traders have significantly reduced their bets on rate cuts this year. They no longer believe there is a 100% chance of a rate cut in 2026. Interest rate swaps tied to the Fed’s policy meeting date show traders now expect only a 24 basis point cut this year as of Thursday, down from about 30 basis points expected Wednesday evening, which is less than a quarter of a percentage point.

Israel Launches Large-Scale Airstrikes

Regarding the situation, CCTV News reports that on the evening of March 12th, Israel’s Defense Forces announced the start of large-scale attacks on infrastructure in Tehran, Iran’s capital. Around 10:10 pm Tehran time, CCTV reporters heard explosions in Tehran, and the air defense system activated.

Later that night, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held his first press conference since the large-scale airstrikes against Iran, defending the joint military action with the U.S.

Netanyahu claimed that after nearly two weeks of Israeli-American airstrikes, Iran “has changed dramatically,” with the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Basij militia “suffering heavy blows.”

When asked about possible actions against Muqtada al-Sadr and Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem, Netanyahu said he would not “issue a life insurance policy” for them and declined to detail plans or actions.

He also revealed that he “speaks with Trump every day,” and their communication is “frank and open.”

Iran Claims a U.S. Military Refueling Plane Was Shot Down

All Crew Members Killed

On the 13th, local time, the CCTV reporter learned that Iran’s Hatham Anbia Central Command announced that a U.S. military refueling plane was shot down by missiles launched by resistance groups in western Iraq, with all crew members dead.

Early on the 13th, Iraqi security sources reported that the crashed U.S. refueling plane carried six soldiers.

On the 12th, U.S. Central Command stated that a U.S. KC-135 aerial refueling aircraft crashed in western Iraq during the period of U.S.-Israel military strikes on Iran. CENTCOM said the incident was not caused by enemy fire or friendly fire.