How a Snow Deficit in the Alps Will Put Europe’s Energy System Under Pressure

Tsvetana Paraskova

Fri, February 13, 2026 at 8:00 AM GMT+9 5 min read

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Europe’s gas demand could rise even higher at the end of this winter, making it even more challenging to refill storage that has been depleting at the fastest pace in years.

So far into 2026, snowfall and snow coverage in the Alps, which feed a large part of the hydropower generation in Austria and northern Italy, have been well below average, Reuters columnist Gavin Maguire notes.

With potentially lower hydropower generation, if snowfall continues to be scarce, gas consumption in the power sector could rise to make up for the gap, Maguire argues.

_Hydropower Decline? _

Reduced hydropower generation could hit Austria and Italy, where this electricity source makes up a large part of the mix.

In Austria, hydropower plants account for more than 60% of electricity output. If we add to this wind, biomass, and solar, renewable power generation in Austria makes up more than three-quarters of the country’s total electricity production. Austria’s last coal-fired power plant was shut in 2020.

In Italy, hydropower accounts for 12% of total power generation, which is still being led by gas-fired power plants.

So far in 2026, gas power generation has jumped by 24% in Italy and 17% in Austria, per data from LSEG cited by Reuters’ Maguire.

Much lower than average snow coverage – if it persists – could complicate Europe’s efforts to refill gas storage sites this summer.

This winter, gas storage sites in Europe are draining at the fastest pace in five years, amid below-average winter temperatures that are driving heating and power demand higher. The faster rate of depletion suggests stocks would end this winter at their lowest level since 2022.

EU gas storage sites were estimated to be just 35% full as of February 10, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Analysts forecast that EU gas storage would be only about 26% full by the end of March, when the winter season officially ends.

EU Set for Record Gas Demand

End-of-winter supply in storage at the lowest in four years means that Europe will need very high imports in the shoulder seasons and the summer to replenish the stocks to adequate levels of 80-90% full storage by November 2026, as per the EU regulations.

U.S. LNG exports are set for a rebound following the weather-related disruptions during the winter storm Fern at the end of January.

Moreover, global LNG supply is expected to remain abundant and even tilt into excess later this year as new export projects in the top exporters, the United States and Qatar, come on stream.

Story Continues  

Thankfully for Europe, this supply wave is expected to continue until at least 2029 as the U.S. and Qatar boost export capacities.

Europe is expected to import a record-high volume of LNG this year as stronger demand for replenishing storage sites, the phase-out of Russian supply, and continued pipeline exports to Ukraine will drive increased demand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its Gas Market Report Q1 2026 last month.

After setting a record in 2025, European LNG imports are poised to reach a new all-time high of over 185 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2026, the agency noted.

Europe’s LNG imports hit a record-high of more than 175 bcm in 2025, surging by 30%, or by 40 bcm, from 2024, the report found. Key factors in the record imports were stronger domestic demand, lower piped gas imports, and higher storage injections in April-October.

As a result of the jump in LNG imports, the share of LNG in Europe’s primary natural gas supply surged from 30% in 2024 to 38% in 2025, the IEA noted.

Most of the incremental LNG supply to Europe came from the United States, which boosted deliveries to Europe by 60% year over year.

This year, the phase-out of Russian gas, which the EU member states agreed on in December, will create an additional market for non-Russian LNG suppliers to the EU, the agency said.

_LNG Supply Growth to Help Europe’s Storage Refill _

In the quarterly report, the IEA also pointed out that a surge in global LNG supply is expected to play a key role in rebalancing global gas markets in 2026, leading to stronger demand growth after a slowdown last year.

The jump in supply, mostly from North America, is expected to reduce market pressures at a time of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, the IEA said.

Global LNG supply growth is set to accelerate in 2026 to more than 7%, its fastest pace since 2019, the agency said, echoing expectations from other forecasters.

The constant growth of solar and wind power generation in Europe could offset some gas demand in the power sector. But if hydropower output in central and southern Europe falters due to a lack of snow, the acceleration of LNG supply growth would be welcome news for the EU’s efforts to refill gas storage sites after the end of this winter.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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