US Stock Market Preview | All Three Major Stock Index Futures Decline, Oil Tankers in the Persian Gulf Consecutively Under Attack

1. On Thursday, March 12, before the US stock market opened, the three major US stock indices futures all declined. As of press time, Dow futures fell 0.86%, S&P 500 futures dropped 0.66%, and Nasdaq futures declined 0.65%.

2. As of press time, Germany’s DAX index decreased by 0.15%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.38%, France’s CAC40 index declined 0.57%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index dropped 0.83%.

3. As of press time, WTI crude oil rose 6.85% to $93.23 per barrel. Brent crude oil increased 7.00% to $98.42 per barrel.

Market News

US initial jobless claims slightly decreased, indicating moderate layoffs. Last week, US initial jobless claims declined, showing limited layoffs by companies. The US Department of Labor reported on Thursday that for the week ending March 7, initial claims were 213,000, below the previous week’s 214,000 and below market expectations of 215,000. Continuing claims as of February 28 fell to 1.85 million, down from 1.87 million the previous week. Before the release of Thursday’s initial claims data, the Labor Department published a weaker-than-expected employment report, showing a loss of 92,000 jobs last month, after a gain of 126,000 in January. However, the moderate initial claims suggest companies prefer to retain employees rather than implement large-scale layoffs.

Persian Gulf tankers targeted in successive attacks, escalating Middle Eastern shipping crisis. Iran launched a new wave of attacks targeting shipping in the Persian Gulf, causing crude oil prices to temporarily surpass $100 per barrel and exacerbating what the International Energy Agency (IEA) calls the “largest-ever disruption” in the oil market. Attacks near Iraqi waters led to the suspension of operations at the country’s oil terminals, potentially making global shipowners more reluctant to traverse the critical Strait of Hormuz. The longer the conflict persists, the greater the impact on energy markets. Fuel prices have already surged, and shortages have appeared in some regions. Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern producers have been forced to cut oil output recently and are seeking alternative routes outside the Strait of Hormuz to export crude oil.

IEA issues highest alert: Middle East conflict causing historic oil market chaos, global daily supply drops by 8 million barrels this month. The IEA states that the Iran-related conflict is causing unprecedented turmoil in the oil market, affecting about 7.5% of global oil supply, with more significant impacts on exports. In its monthly report released Thursday, the IEA said, “The Middle East conflict is causing the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.” The day before, member countries agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves to stabilize the market. After US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, international oil prices surged, and many tankers halted transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA estimates that about 20 million barrels of crude oil and refined products are transported daily through the strait, with flows now down over 90%.

Seeking ways to stabilize oil prices! Trump team holds talks with Russian representatives, focusing on the global energy crisis and potential lifting of Russian oil sanctions. Russian Presidential Special Envoy Dmitryyev stated he met with US officials in Florida, discussing the global energy market crisis. Dmitryyev wrote Thursday, “Many countries, especially the US, are increasingly recognizing the critical and systemic role of Russian oil and gas in maintaining global economic stability, as well as the ineffectiveness and destructive nature of sanctions on Russia.” US Special Envoy Wittekov confirmed his meeting with Dmitryyev in Florida. Jared Kushner and White House senior advisor Gruenbaum also participated in the talks. Dmitryyev revealed that both sides discussed “several prospects that could promote the restoration of US-Russia relations.”

Middle Eastern conflict triggers aviation black swan: global capacity shrinks by 10%, Asia-Europe routes see ticket prices soar 80%. As the ongoing conflict with Iran disrupts global tourism, Asian-European routes are hit hardest, leading to significant fare increases and record-high prices for travelers during the Easter peak. Since the conflict began on February 28, over 46,000 flights have been canceled in the region. This crisis earlier this month wiped out up to 10% of global airline capacity, the largest since the COVID-19 pandemic. Airport closures in the Gulf region have caused capacity drops, pushing up prices on key routes. According to Google Flights data as of March 12, round-trip economy tickets from Sydney to London between April 3-10 have increased over 80% in the past two weeks, while business class fares on the same route have risen about 40%.

Comparable to the 2008 financial crisis and 2020 pandemic! A key options indicator signals potential short-term turbulence for emerging market currencies. A crucial options pricing indicator shows that as Middle East tensions escalate, traders are preparing for further weakening of emerging market currencies over the next month. JPMorgan’s emerging market currency index’s 1-month risk reversal (measuring the cost of downside protection relative to upside) has recently surged. Market concerns grow that prolonged conflict will keep pushing oil prices higher. Currently, this indicator exceeds the 1-year contract level, with the inverted cost structure—short-term protection more expensive than long-term—being extremely rare. The depth of this inversion has reached the highest level since the global sell-off triggered by COVID-19 in 2020.

Stock News

Li Auto (LI.US) projects a net profit of 1.1 billion yuan for 2025, down 85.8% year-over-year. In Q4, Li Auto’s vehicle sales revenue was 27.3 billion yuan, a 36.1% decrease from Q4 2024’s 42.6 billion yuan, but up 5.4% from Q3 2025’s 25.9 billion yuan. Total revenue was 28.8 billion yuan, down 35.0% from Q4 2024’s 44.3 billion yuan, but up 5.2% from Q3 2025’s 27.4 billion yuan. Net profit was 20.2 million yuan, compared to 3.5 billion yuan in Q4 2024 and a net loss of 624.4 million yuan in Q3 2025.

EHang (EH.US) achieves record revenue of 509.5 million yuan in FY2025. EHang’s total revenue reached 509.5 million yuan, an 11.7% year-over-year increase, setting a new high; net loss was 231 million yuan, similar to last year’s loss of 230 million yuan. Specifically, its electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft sales and deliveries reached 221 units, a record high, including 215 EH216 series and 6 VT35 units.

Futu (FUTU.US) Q4 revenue up 45.3% YoY, full-year net profit up 101.9%. In Q4, Futu’s total revenue was HKD 6.438 billion (about $827 million), a 45.3% increase YoY; non-GAAP net profit was HKD 3.456 billion (about $444 million), up 77.0% YoY. Revenue breakdown: trading commissions and fees HKD 2.77 billion, interest income HKD 3.038 billion, other income (including wealth management, enterprise services) HKD 630 million. For the full year 2025, total revenue reached HKD 22.847 billion (about $2.935 billion), up 68.1%; non-GAAP net profit was HKD 11.645 billion (about $1.496 billion), an increase of 101.9%.

NVIDIA (NVDA.US) ignites “AI bull market” with open-source models amid “lobster fever”! The company’s full-stack ambitions support the “AI bull narrative.” With the popularity of models like Claude Cowork from Anthropic and autonomous AI agents like OpenClaw (“Lobster”), NVIDIA aims to ride this wave by launching its open-source large model “Nemotron 3 Super,” designed for scalable operation of highly complex AI systems. In Pinchbench benchmarks, Nemotron 3 Super dominates as the top open-source model. It scored 85.6% on OpenClaw task success rate, rivaling closed-source models Claude Opus 4.6 and GPT-5.4.

Another giant stumbles in EV! Honda (HMC.US) announces reevaluation of electric strategy, provisioning a $15.7 billion loss for strategic restructuring. Honda recently announced that, due to restructuring its EV development plan, it expects to incur up to 2.5 trillion yen (about $157 billion) in costs, making it another major automaker facing setbacks in the global EV transition. The company disclosed it will cancel the development and launch plans for three EV models aimed at North America. By March next year, the company expects a loss of 270-570 billion yen. This scale puts Honda alongside Stellantis (STLA.US), which faces over €22 billion (about $25 billion) in costs due to strategic shifts, and Ford (F.US), which has provisioned $19.5 billion for restructuring.

Key Economic Data and Event Calendar

Tomorrow, 04:30 Beijing time: US Federal Reserve balance sheet as of March 11.

Tomorrow, 00:00 Beijing time: US Federal Reserve quarterly financial accounts report; Fed Governor Bowman to participate in “Basel III and banking capital regulations” discussion.

TBD: EU meeting on oil and natural gas supplies regarding Middle East situation.

Earnings Reports

Friday morning: Adobe (ADBE.US), Ulta Beauty (ULTA.US)

Friday pre-market: Ruxin Technology (RLX.US)