The International Energy Agency sharply lowers its outlook for oil supply growth, stating that the Middle East war has caused the largest oil supply disruption in history.

SmartContractAuditor · 2026-03-12T09:06:47+00:00

The International Energy Agency has lowered its forecast for oil supply growth, projecting an increase of only 1.1 million barrels per day this year, primarily due to Middle East conflict impacting throughput in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil supply is expected to decline to 98.8 million barrels per day in March, the lowest level since Q1 2022, marking the largest supply disruption in history.

SmartContractAuditor

2026-03-12 09:06:47

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Odaily Planet Daily reports that the International Energy Agency (IEA), one day after implementing a historic emergency stock release, has lowered its forecast for oil supply growth due to the Middle East conflict blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA now expects this year’s oil supply to increase by 1.1 million barrels per day, significantly down from the previous estimate of 2.4 million barrels per day. All supply growth is expected to come from regions outside of OPEC+, as the conflict forces major Gulf producers to cut output. Oil supply is projected to plummet by 8 million barrels in March to 98.8 million barrels per day, the lowest level since the first quarter of 2022. The IEA states, “The Middle East war is causing the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.” (Jin10)

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