#沃什出任美联储主席提名受阻 The path of Powell’s Federal Reserve journey faces obstacles, with the probability of a rate cut before June decreasing

On March 11th, local time, U.S. President Trump’s nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Woeh, met with key Republican Senator Tom Thillis, attempting to persuade him to drop his opposition to the nomination. However, Thillis explicitly stated that he would not support any Fed nominee, including Woeh, until certain investigations are concluded.
According to CNBC, the U.S. Consumer News and Business Channel, Kevin Woeh may face a dilemma between fighting inflation and supporting the labor market when he takes over as Fed Chair. Woeh, 55 years old, holds a bachelor’s degree in public policy from Stanford University and a J.D. from Harvard University. After graduation, he worked at Morgan Stanley and joined the U.S. National Economic Council in 2002. From 2006 to 2011, he served as a Federal Reserve Board member and is currently a visiting scholar at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. On January 30, 2026, President Trump officially nominated Woeh to succeed Jerome Powell, who is set to step down in May, as Fed Chair.
Since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield has fluctuated in tandem with soaring oil prices, and market expectations for significant rate cuts by the Fed have slowed. Fed official Harker recently stated that ongoing energy shocks could push inflation higher, and if inflation fails to cool, the Fed may need to consider raising interest rates.
Recently, Fed official Harker indicated that the current rate policy is likely to remain unchanged for a considerable period. She pointed out that the Fed’s policy stance is favorable and capable of effectively addressing the dual challenges of inflation and employment; inflation remains “too high,” and pressures are widespread; the Fed will continue to be committed to achieving maximum employment and a 2% inflation target. Last Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released February non-farm payroll data, showing an unexpected decline of 92,000 jobs and an unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, reversing the market’s previous optimism about stable employment conditions and reigniting concerns about a quiet deterioration in the labor market. Analysts said this surprising report cast a cold shower on the seemingly recovering labor market, but given the ongoing inflation concerns and escalating geopolitical conflicts, the likelihood of a rate cut in March remains low.
According to the latest CME “FedWatch” data: the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in March is 0.6%, with a 99.4% chance of holding rates steady. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by April is 13.9%, with an 86.1% chance of no change, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 0.1%. By June, the probability of a 25 basis point cut increases to 37.5%.