Why Is the Stock Market Down Today, 3/11/26?

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Both the S&P 500 (SPX) and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) are trading lower on Tuesday as the U.S.-Iran war drags into its 12th day.

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Oil prices continue to trend higher, shrugging off an announcement from the International Energy Agency (IEA) that its member states would release a record-breaking 400 million barrels of oil from their reserves. Higher energy prices threaten both inflation and economic growth by driving up transportation and energy costs, squeezing corporate margins, and deflating consumer sentiment.

Iran Tensions Place Inflation Back in the Spotlight

Iran has continued blocking traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and has reportedly begun deploying mines in the passageway. In addition, Iranian military spokesperson Ebrahim Zolfaqari warned the world to “Get ready for ​the oil barrel ​to ⁠be at $200.”

This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released February’s inflation report, showing prices rising by 2.4% annually and in line with the consensus estimate. However, the data was collected before the start of the U.S.-Iran war and is at risk of accelerating higher in March from increased oil and gas prices. Energy accounts for about 7% of the CPI basket, although its ripple effects on other goods and services raise its overall weight to roughly 15%.

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