Geregu Power eyes N8.1 billion Q2 profit after outperforming 2025 forecast

Geregu Power Plc is forecasting a post-tax profit of N8.1 billion for the second quarter of 2026, translating to earnings per share of N3.27.

The projection mirrors its Q2 2025 outlook, when the company estimated N8.6 billion in post-tax profit but exceeded expectations with actual profit after tax of N9.74 billion.

In the latest forecast, sales are expected to reach N44.3 billion, representing a more conservative estimate compared to the N53.1 billion revenue projection made for the second quarter of 2025.

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Notably, the company eventually outperformed that earlier revenue projection, reporting actual Q2 2025 revenue of N55.8 billion when its financial results were released in mid-July 2025.

**What the current data is saying **

Geregu Power Plc expects cost of sales to come in at about N27.4 billion in Q2 2026, lower than the N32.1 billion recorded as actual sales costs in Q2 2025.

• This reflects the softer revenue outlook and would leave gross profit at around N16.9 billion if realized, compared to the stronger N23.7 billion gross profit recorded in Q2 2025.
• The company also anticipates lower operating expenses, with impairment loss on financial assets at N1.02 billion and administrative expenses at N2.05 billion, leaving operating profit at about N13.8 billion.

Although slightly below the N15.02 billion operating profit recorded in Q2 2025, the projected figure still reflects a solid estimate for the quarter.

• Net finance costs are expected to moderate to about N1.6 billion, reflecting finance income of N1.09 billion against finance costs of roughly N2.7 billion.
• In the actual Q2 2025 results, finance costs rose to N3.3 billion from N2.5 billion, and after accounting for N1.6 billion in finance income, net finance costs stood higher.

The quarterly forecast follows the company’s full-year 2025 performance, when it reported a net profit of N27.2 billion for the year.

**Get up to speed **

For the 2025 financial year, Geregu Power Plc reported total revenue of N184.9 billion, up 34.87% year-on-year, with energy sales contributing N120.8 billion and capacity charges accounting for N64.1 billion.

• After accounting for sales costs of N110.7 billion, gross profit settled at N74.2 billion, up 18.30%, while operating profit reached N48.1 billion after operating expenses were deducted.
• However, rising finance costs, particularly borrowing expenses of N6.3 billion and bond-related costs of N5.02 billion, pushed total finance costs to N12.5 billion, leaving net finance cost at N6.1 billion after N6.4 billion in finance income.

This marked a sharp increase from the N1.6 billion net finance cost recorded in the previous year, reflecting significantly higher financing expenses during the period.

In late December 2025, Femi Otedola exited Geregu Power Plc in a landmark $750 million transaction, divesting his 77% controlling stake in the company.

The deal was executed through the sale of Otedola’s 95% stake in Amperion Power Distribution Company Limited to MA’AM Energy Ltd, marking one of Nigeria’s largest private power divestments.

What you should know

Shares of Geregu Power Plc on the Nigerian Exchange have remained largely flat since April 2025, with little price movement, currently priced around N1,141.5 per unit.

The market is yet to meaningfully react to the company’s full-year results; however, the slight dip to around N1,142.5 from N1,150, may present a potential entry point when activity returns on the equity.

Geregu currently has about 2.5 billion outstanding shares on the NGX and a market capitalization of roughly N2.8 trillion, placing it among Nigeria’s Stocks Worth Over One Trillion Naira (SWOOTs).

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