Nvidia Dominates the GPU Market - Analysis of the Decisive Dominance and Industry Challenges in 2025

Report by Jon Peddie Research for Q2 2025 reveals spectacular dominance by Nvidia in the GPU market, where the California-based manufacturer achieved an impressive 94% share. This position strengthens the company’s standing in the global GPU market, while competitors struggle with declining shares. Data indicates a dynamic sector growth but also deep confusion caused by trade policies and artificial shortages.

Spectacular Numbers: Growth in Shipments and Nvidia’s Market Dominance

In Q2 2025, global desktop graphics card shipments reached 11.6 million units, a 30% increase from the previous quarter. This is one of the largest growths observed in the GPU market in recent years. Nvidia maintained a clear lead, controlling 94% of the entire market, while AMD fell to just 6%, and Intel remained below 1%. These proportions show how concentrated the GPU market is around the dominant player and how tough conditions are for competitors.

The AIB distribution rate for desktop computers rose to 154%, meaning over 1.5 graphics cards are sold for every processor purchased. This phenomenon suggests that a significant portion of sales comes not from new systems but from upgrades to existing configurations. Consumers are actively improving their computers, indicating strong demand for GPUs even amid economic uncertainty.

Similarly, shipments to data centers grew by 4.7% quarter-over-quarter. AMD showed a 27% increase in shipments but remains far behind Nvidia in absolute numbers. Intel increased shipments by only 2%, confirming its weak position in this field.

Price Anomaly: Availability Issues and Trade Policy Paradox

Dr. Jon Peddie, president of Jon Peddie Research, highlighted an unusual situation in the GPU market that deviated from traditional patterns of Q2. Mid- and low-range cards experienced price drops, while premium segments saw increases. Retailers often lacked high-end models in stock — a situation completely atypical for this time of year.

This dynamic mainly results from fears over import targets announced by the US for semiconductor products. Buyers tried to beat the market, attempting to purchase graphics cards before prices rose. At the same time, uncertainty about future tariffs affects supply chain planning. Jon Peddie explained: “Due to tariffs and buyers’ attempts to beat the market, prices will continue to rise. The confusion caused by tariffs makes planning for PC suppliers practically impossible. The supply chain is being reconfigured almost weekly.”

The report also revealed that GPU shipments are 5.2% higher than the ten-year average, confirming that the growth is indeed significant and not just an anomaly. Consumers seem willing to invest in upgrades despite market instability. Steam data further confirms this — Nvidia holds nearly 75% of the PC gaming market share, and seven of the thirteen best-selling GPUs in August were from the Blackwell RTX 5000 series.

CPU Market Segmentation and Future Challenges

The desktop processor market grew by 21.6% quarter-over-quarter, though it declined by 4.4% year-over-year. AMD increased shipments by 27%, significantly outpacing Intel, which grew only 2%. These figures suggest a slow transformation in the processor segment, where traditional players are struggling to keep pace.

GPU Market Outlook: Decline or Temporary Anomaly?

Jon Peddie Research forecasts a compound annual growth rate of -5.4% for the GPU market from 2024 to 2028. The installed base by the end of this period is expected to reach 163 million units. This pessimistic outlook suggests that the current growth driven by tariffs may be only a temporary effect, and the market could contract in the medium term.

The causes of this decline could be varied: waning interest in PC gaming, competition from processors with powerful integrated graphics (like AMD’s Strix Halo), or natural market saturation. Dr. Peddie expressed consumer concern: “Consumers are just as confused and worried, which could lead to market correction and further volatility.” According to the expert, this uncertainty may only accelerate demand restrictions.

Release Schedule: What’s Ahead in the GPU Market

The RTX 5000 series graphics cards with Blackwell architecture were released in early 2025, but rumors of a Super version are gaining traction. Some analysts speculate that a Super could appear later this year — which would be much faster than the 15 months between the RTX 4090 (October 2022) and the RTX 4000 Super (January 2024).

AMD plans to launch UDNA GPUs at the end of 2026 or early 2027 — significantly later than Nvidia’s schedule. Intel, meanwhile, introduced its latest GPU generation in December 2024. Nvidia and AMD released their latest generations in the first quarter of 2025, with Nvidia launching high-value models in the second and third quarters.

All these launches faced availability issues. Buyers couldn’t acquire desired GPUs at suggested retail prices, and the situation persisted into the early third quarter. Only in recent months have mid-range card prices normalized.

GPU Market Outlook: Uncertainty and Transformation

The current situation in the GPU market reflects broader challenges facing the semiconductor industry. Trade policies introduce artificial disruptions, while consumers and manufacturers try to adapt. If Jon Peddie Research’s forecasts prove correct, the current growth may be only a temporary episode in a long-term declining trend for the GPU market. Regardless of the future, Nvidia’s dominance appears lasting — the question is whether this will be a lasting assumption in a shrinking or growing market.