Analyst: Beneath the calm of U.S. inflation data, potential hidden risks may exist. Traders will closely monitor the performance of the core services sector.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Tastylive’s Global Macro Director Ilya Spivak states that the next market catalyst is likely to come from inflation data itself. Economists expect the overall U.S. CPI year-over-year to be 2.4% in February, with core CPI at 2.5%. However, beneath the surface of the data, a key risk is subtly visible. An important driver of January’s CPI data was the decline in energy prices’ contribution to overall inflation. Given that oil prices have already begun rising by early 2026, reproducing this situation seems extremely difficult. Whatever this means for the energy component in February’s CPI data, traders will be keenly watching whether core price growth (especially in services) continues to decline slightly. This could revive hopes for inflation normalization after Middle Eastern conflicts subside, helping to soothe market anxiety. If not, fragile financial markets may experience “safe-haven” volatility again, as investors face the possibility of interest rates remaining high for a longer period. This would signal a grim outlook for stocks, bonds, and currencies outside the dollar. (Jin10)