Today's Reflection 0308: Oil-Braised Lobster

Today I just saw so many reminders to update the backend, I feel a bit embarrassed if I don’t update soon… [Taogu Ba]

Weekend hot topics.

First, the escalation between the US and Iran, crude oil futures soared, and teachers who took the lead on oil disputes are happy again. But don’t rush; even park bird-walkers are saying that crude oil opening high shouldn’t be bought in immediately. It’s becoming a consensus expectation—this alertness is honed through the A-share market battles. Logically, rising crude oil futures don’t mean oil companies are making money; refining costs have increased significantly. Just look at how gas prices only went up a few cents these days and people are already complaining. Their costs are not just a little higher. The feedback from US petrochemical stocks in Friday night trading is very clear. Also, the Strait of Hormuz released 22 ships today. Every event has a desensitization process, and the impact diminishes over time.

So, look for oil derivatives, substitutes, and chemical products—companies that truly benefit and have permanent profit growth.

And that drone mini-motor, also being hyped as a mimic of Hainan Da’s BB radio, is just emotional speculation.

Second, the small lobster topic is very eye-catching and trendy. Looking at the chart, wow, it’s still those old players. The biggest issue is the chip problem—lurking positions, trapped positions, and the influence of old funds. Currently, retail investors are resting, institutions are restricted, and quantitative strategies hold the narrative power. Whether quantitative funds are willing to take these chips depends on whether the market’s strong expectations are realistic or weak. That’s why everyone is excited discussing it, but if asked to buy immediately, many wouldn’t say a word.

However, such phenomena always have a top-level exit, and chips that come out cleanly. The best approach is to digest the chips overall before reflowing.

Third, the “electric synergy” concept, first introduced at the Two Sessions, is supported by policy and real demand, giving it strong momentum. It’s unavoidable. Next, the anchoring point—Yunnan Energy gives a high anchor. The more chaotic and rotational the market, the more it tends to return to fundamentals, i.e., market direction is set by high-level decisions. With a high anchor, there are secondary, tertiary, and quaternary anchors, and even the rebound targets. Many times, success depends on luck, and stocks are the same. Yunnan Energy first moves on computing power; if that stalls, it shifts to power; if power diverges, then it moves to electric synergy…

Fourth, emotional group expectations are also based on the disorderly market environment. Over the past few years, there’s often been a perception of capital grouping, plus signs of regulatory relaxation. The long-term imprisonment of Fenglong is over, Shangwei’s extension is over, and the regulatory-friendly feedback on Minbao Shangwei is positive. The regulatory game on Jamei and Tianzhong is ongoing. Plus, Yunnan Energy continues to show a 160% high in regulation.

Finally, trading, like eggs, must be in your own hands. Even if crushed, it must be held by yourself.