[Red Envelope] Continue to expand and adapt to changing circumstances! What is the expected annual return for professional players?

Hello everyone, I am Xiaoxin. My trading system can be summarized with words like “timing, main theme, leading stocks, low frequency,” which is the Long Kong Long model. [Taogu Ba]
Follow me, and let’s catch the leading stocks together. If there are true leaders in the market that I haven’t shared, just unfollow!

1. Leading Stock Practical Trading Analysis

Today’s pre-market plan:

1. Tuowei Information: Bought in during Monday’s opening auction, resulting in a limit-up; added positions during today’s auction, then held on the 5-day moving average line.

Trading logic:
(1) From a fundamental perspective: The company relies on open-source Hongmeng self-developed capabilities in the HongOS 3.0 underlying system, first completing deep adaptation and pre-integration of OpenClaw (Lobster), launching an AI BOX with integrated capabilities, making it a genuine Lobster concept stock.
(2) From a technical perspective: Last Friday’s limit-up pure Lobster concept stocks included Tuowei Information, Jinhang Technology, and Ningbo Construction. Although Ningbo Construction was the first to hit the limit, it’s clear that Tuowei Information’s popularity and influence are the strongest. If Ningbo Construction is an emotional leader, then Tuowei Information is the real leader (distinguishing genuine from false leaders can be seen in the first main post); it hit the limit again on Feb 27 and Mar 6, forming a three-wave upward pattern with a bottom reversal signal; recent accumulation volume indicates large funds are building positions.
(3) Operational logic: Yesterday’s expected opening was 3-5%, but it opened over 1%, below expectations. However, for a leader, this “disappointing” opening actually created a cost-effective “expectation gap buying point,” so I bought without hesitation; today’s green opening also had good value, so I increased positions.

2. JuFei Optical Fiber: Bought during last Friday’s auction and got trapped, waiting for a recovery exit opportunity.

Trading logic:
(1) From a thematic hype perspective: Last Thursday, LED panel concept stocks exploded, with over 20 stocks hitting the limit. This theme hadn’t been hot for two or three years. It started during the oil retreat, and may become a main market theme. However, last Friday’s performance was below expectations. Whether it will rebound depends on future flow. In a market dominated by quantification, many themes follow a pattern of “explosion on the day, profit-taking the next day, then re-flow after a day or two.” For a theme to become a main line, it must first be tested by quant strategies.
(2) From a fundamental perspective: The company is a leading domestic backlight LED packaging enterprise, with about 18% overseas revenue; it has successfully solved advanced packaging technologies like 400G silicon photonic module flip-chip packaging, system-on-chip packaging, and optoelectronic coupling stacking, with system testing underway at client sites.
(3) From a technical perspective: Recently, it has shown very strong momentum, leading the LED panel concept stocks, with high trading volume indicating deep institutional involvement. If LED panels are to be the next hype direction, JuFei is naturally my top choice as the leader.
(4) Operational logic: Strong stocks often open with expectation gaps, so I bought during auction. I didn’t know the big gap down was due to a clarification announcement from the company before the market opened. Today, a small red K near the 10-day moving average shows signs of stabilizing.
Reflection: Even if I saw the clarification before the market opened, I would still buy in such a big gap down—this is a pattern-based buy point, and success or failure depends on the market (today, Tuowei Information also had this pattern).

Follow me to see pre-market plans first-hand; I will share them publicly every morning in the comment section!

2. The Dragon-Seeking Trilogy
   (1) From an emotional cycle perspective:
   Still in a chaotic phase, but it feels like the end is near because thematic hype is starting to focus. Unfortunately, Shun Na didn’t advance to 5 boards, and Lobster’s performance isn’t very strong, so chaos continues.
   (2) From a thematic hype perspective:
   Power and computing power are advancing together, showing good sustainability, both emanating from Yunnan Energy Holding. Power stocks had some divergence today, but China Western Electric and China Energy Construction trend well, so power isn’t ending; within computing power, rotation continues with 8 limit-ups, and Tuowei Information and Huasheng Tiancheng trend well, so computing power isn’t ending either. Today’s strongest sector is communications (CPO, PCB, fiber optics, etc.), seen as a rotation.
   (3) From individual stocks:
   The big leader is clear—Yunnan Energy Holding, which integrates power and computing. Looking deeper, the leaders in computing power are Tuowei Information and Huasheng Tiancheng; in power, China Western Electric and China Energy Construction are also strong trend leaders.

3. Leader Comments

4. Yunnan Energy Holding: First limit-up with a straight line above previous high, showing excellent chip structure for a major leader; a strong start at the 5th limit-up with high volume, transitioning from weak to strong, surviving the “passing the tribulation” test, with potential to become a major leader; actively breaking through the 5-board resistance, facing a sudden move at the 7th limit-up, with a deep long leg on Monday and a suspension warning, already a breakthrough leader; then consolidating sideways, resisting extreme market conditions—this is “passing the heaven’s tribulation.” Last Friday, with market warming, it hit the limit again, successfully passing the tribulation and driving power sector hype, evolving into a major leader.
   Trading aspect: It’s more of a breakthrough leader, leading market sentiment. When the market shifts from chaos to main rally, a breakthrough leader appears first, then a true major leader emerges. For example, before Jierong Technology, I used 8 consecutive limit-ups of WoLe Home to heat up the scene. As a breakthrough leader, the risk-reward at this position isn’t very attractive, and the company’s secretary often issues suspension warnings.

5. Tuowei Information: Although its rise isn’t large, its influence is very strong, attracting capital from all sides, plus Lobster concept support, making it the leader in computing power. Tuowei Information leans toward industry leadership driven by fundamentals; Yunnan Energy Holding leans toward emotional leadership with more speculative traits.
   Trading aspect: As a large-cap stock, trend is key. Focus near the 5-day moving average; if deviating too much from it, consider reducing positions.

6. Market Risk Reminder
   The index remains in a bearish rehearsal, sentiment is still chaotic, thematic rotation continues, and it’s not time to reduce positions yet. But since the Middle East event has settled, gradual testing can begin.

7. Tomorrow’s Observation
   (1) The continuation of Lobster hype today was below expectations; observe if tomorrow’s divergence turns into consensus, focusing on UCloud and Tuowei Information; Ningbo Construction needs to continue with large single orders.
   (2) Shun Na failed to challenge the 5-board, with a large volume and a first downward candle; monitor tomorrow’s feedback. If negative feedback is significant, the 5-board may remain the ceiling for a while, indicating that consecutive limit-ups will be hard to profit from.

8. Insight Sharing (from Long Feihu’s “Dynamic Position Management”)

Question: What is the expected annual return for professional traders?
Answer: There are 1-3 major speculative booms each year, lasting about 10-15 trading days. During these periods, full commitment and high positions are necessary, aiming for a 30-60% return.
Most days in a year are in low-energy phases, satisfying trading needs and maintaining a sense of trading. Expected returns are 10-20%.
Depending on personal preferences, phase-specific patience is used to capture opportunities in themes like new stocks, restructuring, high dividends, or arbitrage. Expected returns are 10-20%.
With strong defensive awareness and ability, avoid major declines in the index and extremely low volume periods. Through compound interest and defense, aim for annual returns of 50-100%, with a good sense of personal satisfaction.
Interpretation: Many traders around me lack awareness of the market’s strength or weakness stages, always fully invested, chasing big gains on upswings, rushing to buy at bottoms during drops, seeing only opportunities and never stopping. This results in no trading rhythm and poor judgment of importance. Currently, the market is in a low-energy phase, yet many still chase high and sell low, which is predictable.

One sentence comment on today’s market:
Quantitative strategies dominate, leaders are hard to find.

That’s all for today! Thank you all for your support and recognition! If you have any questions, feel free to discuss in the comments!
If you find this post helpful, don’t forget to like!