Morgan Stanley Technical Analysis: Oil prices face upside risk of rising to $134/$150

LootboxPhobia · 2026-03-10T15:44:22+00:00

Bank of America analysis indicates that although Brent crude oil prices have risen to $120, there is a risk of correction, and short-term fluctuations are possible. It is expected that oil prices will trade within the $90 to $110 range, and the potential for future increases depends on price trends.

LootboxPhobia

2026-03-10 15:44:22

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Investing.com - Technical analysis by Bank of America indicates that despite recent oil prices soaring to around $120, there is still a significant risk of a sharp upward tail.

Brent crude oil broke above $100 on Monday and surged to $119.50, said Paul Ciana, a technical strategist at Bank of America. He stated that this movement “fits a short-term topping pattern, followed by consolidation/adjustment in price and volatility.”

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However, even so, Bank of America’s technical framework still points to higher potential levels, provided the market continues to be driven by geopolitical or supply risks. Ciana said, “Even after this surge, tail risk levels of $134/$150 driven by headlines could still occur, although the probability has decreased after the spike.”

He noted, “We expect trading to remain headline-driven with higher volatility and to form a higher range, while tail risk targets still pose risks.”

In the medium term, the strategist expects a consolidation phase after a significant rise. The move to around $120 in Brent crude oil precisely hits the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level, Ciana said, which could signal the end of the current upward wave and the start of a correction or range-bound period.

Ciana pointed out that if past supply shocks are a reference, oil prices could trade within a narrowing range of about $90 to $110 in the coming months as the market digests the recent price surge.

He added, “To reduce the likelihood of a new upward wave in the future, we would prefer to see oil prices form a top and/or break below the high of $81.40, shifting the wave pattern toward a bearish scenario.”

He also emphasized that oil has outperformed other major assets, with ratios relative to bonds, the S&P 500, copper, and gold breaking out significantly in recent months.

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