The Fourth Cryptocurrency Bear Market

Why play with Bitcoin? Compare it to housing prices and cryptocurrency prices.

Figure 1: Shanghai real estate 20-year chart. Basically, housing prices have been rising for 20 years since 2002, until a major decline began in 2022. Core district housing prices fell by -20%, suburban areas by -40%.

In other words, housing prices have been rising for the past 20 years. If you started from scratch, it’s very difficult to have enough capital to participate because your income from work can’t keep up with the rate of housing price increases. It wasn’t until these past two years that housing prices started to fall. But isn’t the total price still too high? The real estate cycle is too long—only once every 20 years do we see a true bull or bear market. Missing it means waiting 10-20 years, which is too long in a person’s life. How many 10 or 20 years do people have? Many young people don’t have large capital or the time to wait 10-20 years.

Figure 2: Bitcoin’s monthly chart over the past 10 years. Very clear 4-year bull and bear cycles.

Bitcoin halves its block reward every 4 years. Every 4 years, a bear market occurs, with typical drops of -80%. Even Bitcoin itself drops -80%, while altcoins often drop -99%, almost zeroing out. This gives a chance to completely reset and reshuffle the deck.

(Satoshi Nakamoto released the Bitcoin white paper in 2008. In the genesis block code of 2009, the rule of halving approximately every 210,000 blocks (~4 years) was written in—block rewards go from 50 to 25, then 12.5, 6.25, 3.125, etc. Every 4 years, mining rewards are halved.

Satoshi Nakamoto set this 4-year cycle as the underlying mechanism, giving the crypto world a regular 4-year bull and bear cycle.)

Summary: Physical real estate is also an investment for everyone, but the total price is too high. The 10-20 year bull and bear cycles are too long—making it very difficult for young people to invest both in principal and time.

The crypto market’s 4-year bull and bear cycle is very clear. During bear markets, prices drop by -80%, greatly lowering the investment threshold. Everyone can participate. You only need a monthly income or salary to get involved. If you miss a bull or bear cycle, you can wait 3-4 years, reset, and get another chance.

Compared to the housing market, stock market, gold, silver, and other financial markets worldwide, the crypto market is unique with its 4-year bull and bear cycle. During bull markets, prices can multiply or even dozens of times; during bear markets, the entire market drops -80%. Reset and start over.

The saying “a year in crypto is like ten years in the real world” captures this idea.

Low threshold + 4-year cycle of multipliers during bull markets and -80% drops during bear markets = creates the unique investment value of crypto.

Young people can use their salary or monthly income to reasonably control cash flow, and invest with money they can afford to lose in crypto as a side hustle. It’s a very good choice.

(But avoid taking out loans or selling houses to invest desperately. Crypto is suitable for bottom-fishing in bear markets, aiming for small gains to achieve big results. Betting big with borrowed money or selling everything doesn’t align with the grassroots route to turn around in crypto.)

Last bull and bear cycle: November 2021 peak price of $69,000.
November 2022 bottom price of $15,500, a -79% drop from the peak.
This cycle’s current bull and bear: October 2025 peak price of $126,000.

The bear market has lasted 5 months so far, with Bitcoin’s lowest price around $60,000. From $126,000 to $60,000, it’s a -52% drop—just about halving. We are only halfway through this bear market. In another six months, crypto will be full of cheap opportunities and gold mines.

Each bear market lasts about 12 months—roughly from October 2025 to November 2026. We’ve only been in the bear phase for 5 months.

The price of Bitcoin at the 126,000 peak still has a long way to go to reach the bottom at around 30,000, a -75% drop. Many inexperienced crypto investors should pay attention to my insights.

I will continue to update a lot of experience, data, and trading strategies about crypto bull and bear markets. Let’s stick together and hold until the bottom, and buy at the lowest point.

The 4-year cycle opportunity is here. I hope everyone can buy the dip during bear markets and get rich during bull markets.