Today’s Market Overview

Today is Non-Farm Payrolls day. I’ve been messing around here at 70K for most of the day, wondering if there’s any direction to see whether the NFP will trigger a move... Let’s first look at the overall market...
Figure 1: Let’s check the liquidity situation...
The spot selling pressure from yesterday to today has persisted... Since Coinbase opened after the US stock market opened yesterday, CVD has been at -1000+ , which aligns with yesterday’s ETF net outflow of over $200 million...
Currently, the market is sideways, so before the NFP release, there’s no forward-looking reference value for today’s market...
From the aggregated CVD perspective, the spot CVD has already returned to normal levels...
The futures CVD has not yet normalized...
But the fact that futures CVD hasn’t normalized doesn’t mean traders are still active in the market, as open interest (OI) has already decreased by 80%...
This pattern was also seen in the previous wave, after the rally on March 2nd, when spot CVD approached normalization, while futures CVD remained high but OI had already decreased significantly...
Therefore, the futures CVD not being normalized doesn’t hold much reference for the subsequent market trend...
Figure 2: Order Book...
Currently, on the order book, support around 70K is mainly from some integer grid orders—there are dozens to over 100 orders at 70K, 69.5K, and 69K...
Overall, the price is still somewhat biased towards buy orders within the 1% to 2.5% range, but it hasn’t reached the threshold, and the spread hasn’t appeared.
Above, there are over 100 orders at 72K acting as resistance...
As mentioned yesterday, the contract demand above 70K, after a few dips during the Asian session, has mostly been filled and entered the market...
Figures 3 and 4: Overall view
The market is slowly filling the gap created by the rapid rise earlier...
From any technical analysis school, three potential support zones below can be identified, as shown in Figure 4: 1, 2, and 3.
Zone 1: Around 70K,
This is a support point that was previously a resistance level, formed by several high points and the average cost lines of the VWAP that had been pressing down on 60K earlier. Once it breaks above the average cost, it turns from resistance into support, and it also breaks through the VAH of the previous major rally...
Zone 2: Near 68K
This is another potential support zone if 70K cannot hold. It’s also the POC during this sideways phase and marks the start of the gap in this rally (between 68 and 69).
Zone 3: 66K
This is an extreme scenario in the coming days, representing the POC and VAL of the support zone during the sideways range...
In summary, at the current crossroads around 70K, and on the eve of the NFP, it’s still difficult to determine the market direction...
If the NFP results in a surge in spot buying, then demand at 70K will be confirmed, with spot sell pressure being absorbed, CVD bullish divergence appearing, and CVD resetting along with OI, potentially triggering a new wave...
If the spot market continues to sell off afterward, it would indicate persistent selling pressure pushing the price lower...
So, we can only wait for feedback from the support zones and the emergence of entry models...