Recently, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a phased rebound under multiple factors. Bitcoin has retaken the $70,000 mark, and market sentiment has significantly improved with increased capital activity. From the derivatives market perspective, approximately 32,000 Bitcoin options are set to expire this week, with a notional value of about $2.3 billion, with the largest pain point around $69,000; at the same time, about 184,000 Ethereum options are expiring, with a notional value of approximately $380 million, and the largest pain point near $1,950.

Looking at the options trading structure, despite the recent price recovery, selling call options has gradually become the mainstream strategy, indicating that some institutions are beginning to hedge risks during the upward movement, which has slowed the market’s upward momentum. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s position in the overall crypto derivatives market remains at a high level, showing that mainstream funds are still concentrated in Bitcoin assets. Influenced by this rebound, implied volatility (IV) has also risen significantly, with Bitcoin’s main-term IV around 55% and Ethereum’s main-term IV around 75%, indicating that investors still maintain high expectations for future market volatility.

On the macro level, the ongoing tension in the Middle East has become a recent focus of global financial markets. If geopolitical conflicts escalate further, it could lead to increased short-term volatility in global risk assets. Historically, during periods of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, some funds tend to flow into safe-haven assets such as gold, energy, and Bitcoin, which may also drive the crypto market emotionally. Meanwhile, discussions on crypto regulation policies in the US and Europe are still ongoing. If future regulatory frameworks become clearer, they could bring more stable institutional capital inflows into mainstream assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Overall, under the combined influence of geopolitical risks, policy expectations, and capital battles, the crypto market may maintain a short-term oscillating and slightly bullish pattern. #GateforAI重磅上线 $BTC