"GateLive Roundtable" Episode 8: Escalating Geopolitical Conflicts, Will the Market Experience a "Golden Pit"?

“Gate Live Roundtable Discussion” is a Chinese-language crypto roundtable hosted by Gate Live, airing promptly every Wednesday at 8:00 PM, focusing on the most discussed industry topics of the moment. We periodically invite core practitioners and frontline observers from blockchain, Web3, DeFi, Ethereum ecosystem, stablecoins, and compliance and policy fields to join in-depth discussions live.

The roundtable emphasizes a relaxed, open, authentic dialogue atmosphere, exploring market trends, industry disagreements, and key variables from multiple perspectives, helping viewers form clearer, more rational judgments amid complex market narratives.

This episode’s theme: Geopolitical Conflicts Intensify, Will the Market See a “Golden Pit”?

Guests: Well-known KOL in the Chinese crypto community — flyawei, HouShanRen, Mr&Qiang

This program is for informational exchange and opinion discussion only and does not constitute any investment advice.

(This content is compiled from the live replay, with text assisted and appropriately edited by AI. For the full content, please copy the link: https://www.gate.com/zh/live/video/dea52c94dd8fb1d23bb74d7348803d03)

Host Jesse:

Hello everyone, good evening. Welcome to tonight’s GateLive roundtable. I am your host, Jesse!

Just last week, on February 28th, the Middle East, this powder keg, was ignited again. The major military actions by the US and Israel against Iran hit like a deep water bomb, not only cracking open geopolitical fissures but also triggering an “extreme market condition” in crypto.

As the only major financial market open on weekends, the crypto market experienced a textbook rollercoaster: Bitcoin plunged over $7,000 in one hour, but before the margin call messages even finished, it rebounded sharply, recovering most of the losses.

Is this decline a “golden pit” created by the main players amid fire, or a “meat grinder” luring us in before liquidity dries up?

We are very fortunate to have three industry veterans with deep insights here to help clarify and untangle this chaos.

Let’s welcome:

Flyawei, who understands geopolitical macro logic!

HouShanRen, who excels at capturing market game dynamics!

And our practical trader, Mr&Qiang!

Welcome, everyone! Looking forward to your insights. First, please briefly introduce yourselves.

flyawei:

Hello, I’m flyawei on Twitter, a familiar face at our roundtable. I mainly do laid-back crypto trading, DeFi arbitrage, and some financial management. Also, I’m researching the hot OpenClaw crayfish project. Thanks everyone.

HouShanRen:

Hi everyone, glad to join today’s roundtable. I now do daily live streams on Gate, focusing on macro and technical analysis. Follow me for updates, and feel free to ask questions anytime during my streams.

Mr&Qiang:

Hello, I’m Mr&Qiang, same name on Twitter and Gate. I do daily live trading broadcasts, currently a full-time trader. My trading isn’t limited to crypto; I also trade A-shares, US stocks, and precious metals.

Recently, like flyawei, I’ve been studying the crayfish project. I aim to develop AI quantitative trading for my community—using bots for execution and providing reference for members, aiming for sustained profits.

I usually do trading streams around 3:30–4:00 PM on Gate. If you have questions, join my live room for discussion. Thanks!

Jesse:

Thanks again to all three for joining. Let’s get straight into today’s topic.

If geopolitical tension is the “cause,” then asset prices are the “effect.” First, I’d like to ask everyone to interpret: Is the US-Israel strike on Iran a limited military operation or a trigger for large-scale war? In the coming days, which indicators should we focus on to verify the true intentions of capital? Oil prices rising, gold breaking previous highs, or fluctuations in US Treasury yields?

HouShanRen:

Great question. The US strike on Iran—what’s the intention? That’s hard to guess. But Iran is rich in energy resources. Based on my judgment, Trump’s move against Iran is probably aimed at the midterm elections, trying to secure re-election.

As for whether it’s a trigger for a large-scale war, that seems unlikely. The US military hasn’t deployed ground troops—only airstrikes and missiles. If ground troops were involved, that would be a further escalation.

Key indicators to watch: First, crude oil. Since the conflict started, oil has hit daily limit-ups for several days. I’ve said before on various platforms that buying oil at the start of geopolitical conflicts is a T0-level move. After oil surges, in the mid-to-late stages of geopolitical tension, gold tends to take the spotlight.

So, the three main indicators to watch are: first, oil prices—if they keep rising, it signals potential escalation; second, gold—known as the ultimate safe-haven asset. Currently, I see all crypto assets, including Bitcoin, as risk assets. Bitcoin’s recent volatility—sometimes $2,000–$3,000 swings, even $5,000–$6,000 in extreme cases—reflects this. Its size is smaller than gold, and as a risk asset, any disturbance prompts quick sell-offs or buying. Gold’s volatility is relatively lower.

Third, US Treasury yields. Recently, yields have been rebounding. Why? Because oil prices are rising. Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil supply is transported. Once the Strait is blocked, oil prices will inevitably rise, fueling inflation expectations. This may delay Fed rate cuts, prompting capital to sell risk assets or gold and buy US Treasuries.

Prioritization: first, oil—most reflective of the conflict’s progression; second, gold; third, US Treasury yields.

flyawei:

HouShanRen’s analysis is comprehensive. I’ll add a point. Besides the midterm elections, another reason for this conflict is that the world is all-in on AI. AI computing power fundamentally depends on energy—mainly electricity. Without sufficient power, AI development is hampered.

Energy resources like oil are crucial globally, and the US also values this highly. I believe the US and Israel’s strike aims for a quick resolution. But the actual situation isn’t as US expected, and I think it won’t turn into a prolonged war. They’ll probably sit down to negotiate eventually, and it won’t escalate to US ground troops. Iran has also proposed discussions to end the conflict, so tensions should ease. Today, Bitcoin and Ethereum both showed slight rebounds.

In the current international situation, safe-haven assets like oil, gold, and US Treasuries are key. You can gauge the overall trend by observing their price movements.

Also, I pay attention to prediction markets. They reflect collective judgment on public events. When certain events occur, prediction markets often show sudden volatility. Monitoring these can give insights into market sentiment.

That’s my view, thank you.

Mr&Qiang:

Alright, I’ll share my perspective. First, Iran’s situation isn’t like Venezuela’s; this isn’t a hasty airstrike that ends quickly. Since the strike on February 28, the Middle East has entered its most dangerous phase in decades. Previously, the US easily targeted Venezuela, Iraq, Afghanistan for desired gains. But now, it’s different—more like coercive change through escalation. The key point: Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei was targeted and killed.

Iran’s military strength is top in the Middle East, with strong homeland defenses and advanced weapons—ballistic missiles, hypersonic weapons, etc. Iran has already taken action—attacking US bases in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Dubai. This isn’t just proxy warfare with Israel anymore; it’s an escalation. I believe this war will last at least a month or longer.

For financial practitioners, this directly affects our wallets. We should focus on a few key indicators.

First, trading volume—real money voting. It’s crucial in geopolitics. Three signals to watch:

1. Oil: as a major commodity, oil’s status is high, but don’t just watch the price—look at the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) or shipping fuel freight rates. If freight rates surge, it indicates oil supply isn’t tight yet; if shipping stops or freight drops, it signals capital fleeing or shortages.

2. Gold and oil divergence: both safe havens, sometimes move together. If gold rises faster than oil, it indicates fear of financial collapse. If oil outpaces gold, it suggests supply chain disruptions. Watch gold prices—if they break above $3,000/oz, war risks are high. Be conservative.

3. US Treasury yields: normally, war is good for Treasuries, but if yields rise instead of fall, it signals concern about inflation from war. This could drag down assets like A-shares, real estate, etc. My advice: expect volatility. Use gold, oil, Bitcoin as reference. Watch daily closing prices—if a asset stays high for three days, it reflects the real market sentiment.

Iran remains a tough opponent; the death of its leader may trigger internal resistance. Funds haven’t pulled out yet—they’re betting on diplomacy. But if the Strait is fully blocked, with no ships passing, market volatility will spike. That’s my view. Thank you.

Jesse:

After analyzing geopolitics, let’s turn back to the crypto market itself. At this point, what’s the main factor influencing Bitcoin’s short-term trend: external geopolitical variables like Middle East tensions, or internal market sentiment and capital game? What do you all think?

flyawei:

I think both. The overall market sentiment, including international situation, is risk-averse now. Especially for risk assets like Bitcoin, liquidity is limited. Currently, market sentiment is quite panic-driven. I see this as a rebound in the short term. Other drivers—like US ETF inflows, exchange outflows—mainly affect Bitcoin.

Ethereum and altcoins I’m not paying much attention to now. I focus on Bitcoin, which is still at a relatively low level. I prefer spot trading—no leverage. External factors include Iran’s situation and Khamenei’s death. It’s hard to end quickly, so I suggest risk-averse strategies: rebounding, shorting.

Thanks.

HouShanRen:

I think both factors matter. Internal sentiment and external conflicts should be considered together. As Brother Qiang said, since US ground troops aren’t involved, it’s not a full-scale war yet—maybe 20–30% done, and a month or two more is normal.

In crypto, I often say in my daily analysis: since the war won’t end soon, traders might leverage up or unwind positions to profit from volatility. Since the war started, Bitcoin’s swings have been huge—after each move, it consolidates. During consolidation, if a structure forms, it either plunges or surges.

Market sentiment: the greed index was in teens a few days ago, now back to single digits. Even old hands like me, with 7–8 years in the market, rarely see such prolonged panic. It’s surprising.

For Bitcoin, I see a trend short position around 71,000–74,000. I plan to short if it hits that zone. Today, I said in my live stream that the resistance trendline should break if it goes higher—many will short at around 71,000. Market makers will push it up to trigger stops, then drop it. They’ll fake a move to shake out shorts, then reverse.

No matter external changes, market fear, or big players’ tactics, I rely on my own indicators and analysis. I stay calm.

Mr&Qiang:

My view aligns with the others. I’ll add a point: experienced traders always say never to be fully long or short. But I believe, if you’re bullish on crypto or A-shares, you should never be completely out of the market—never fully short. That’s a sound survival principle.

Risk and opportunity go hand in hand. Not being fully in reduces anxiety and fear of missing out. If you believe in Bitcoin, not holding any creates FOMO. During a rally, that can lead to chasing high. Being partially in helps manage risk—especially in war or black swan environments, where variables are unpredictable.

Keep some cash on hand—especially now—say 70%. It’s for safety and to buy cheap during dips. For beginners, stick to spot, avoid leverage. Focus on mainstream coins; avoid altcoins during crises—they often break down when volatility spikes.

Diversify assets: gold, silver, long-term tech stocks like Nvidia, Tesla, Google. War disrupts short-term, but long-term AI trends remain. Also, consider stable income assets like Gate’s low-risk products or stablecoins earning interest. They’re stable and can outperform many.

Use dollar-cost averaging—don’t deploy all capital at once. When uncertain, buy more on dips. Avoid obsessing over charts during panic—overreacting leads to mistakes. Focus on mainstream assets, and watch Gate’s indicators for market sentiment.

My strategy: short-term trades, take profits early, reduce positions at highs, add on dips. This flexible approach helps adapt to ongoing chaos.

Overall, the situation won’t resolve quickly. Prepare for prolonged conflict, like Russia-Ukraine, with repeated fluctuations. Diversify, keep cash, stay calm.

If you follow these principles, even ordinary users can achieve decent gains. That’s my view.

Jesse:

Thanks to all three for the insightful sharing.

The fire has created deep pits and divisions. In this era of information overload and fierce long/short battles, I hope tonight’s live helps everyone find their own light in the fog.

Markets always present opportunities, but only if we survive first.

Thanks again to the guests, and to everyone watching Gate Live. Follow us to navigate bull and bear markets and see through the essence.

See you next time!