[US Stock Market Open] Iran retaliates, expands Persian Gulf front, oil prices surge back to post-war highs, Dow Jones drops 345 points (updating)

The Iran war enters its sixth day, with conflicts in the Middle East rapidly spreading across the region, including Qatar and Bahrain. Azerbaijan also reports drone attacks, while Tehran claims its navy aircraft attacked a US oil tanker in the northern Persian Gulf.

Market sentiment remains cautious, with oil prices fluctuating, currently at $83.88 per barrel, up 3%. Iran states it has not blocked the Strait of Hormuz, asserting that passage rules are set by Iran.

U.S. stocks opened lower, with the Dow down 345 points to 48,394; the S&P 500 fell 0.3% to 6,844; and the Nasdaq declined 0.3% to 22,742.

The US dollar index rose above 99, gaining 0.3% to 99.06; US long-term bond yields increased to 4.141%; international gold prices fell, currently at $5,096 per ounce, down 0.8%.

First Eagle Investment Management states that recent risk surges have caused insurers to refuse coverage for voyages, leading to a halt in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz over the past few days. Continued disruptions could push oil prices higher, severely impacting the global economy, especially China and other Asian markets heavily reliant on oil imports via this strait.

The firm notes that even if OPEC+ agrees to increase production by 206,000 barrels per day starting April, most major oil-producing countries in the alliance depend heavily on exports through the Strait of Hormuz—meaning ongoing shipping disruptions could keep supply tight despite increased output.

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Market Trends:

【17:45】Iran states it has not blocked the Strait of Hormuz; oil prices fluctuate. Dow futures down 120 points, Nasdaq futures down 0.1%.

【13:06】Dow futures down 139 points at 48,657; S&P futures down 9 points at 6,866; Nasdaq futures down 36 points or 0.1% at 25,092.

【13:03】【BTC Trend】Bitcoin surged past $73,000, boosted by regulatory concerns and geopolitical safe-haven demand. “Crocodile King” Dalio warns of major risks.

【12:37】【US Stock Analysis】VIX volatility index declines, US stocks improve. Market sentiment remains cautious; oil prices are within “manageable” range.

【12:29】【Iran Crisis】China reportedly instructs major refineries to suspend diesel and gasoline exports, halting new contracts and canceling freight agreements.

【12:14】【Iran Crisis】Natural gas prices surge; EU may reconsider Russia gas import bans.

【11:48】【AI + Chips】Meta plans to develop custom chips for training its AI models.

【11:36】【AI + Defense】After being blocked by US government, Anthropic reportedly still negotiating AI agreements with the Department of Defense.

【09:57】【US Rate Cuts】Fed Board member Milan: Iran conflict won’t change the need for rate cuts; expects four cuts this year.

【09:33】AI + Nvidia | Jensen Huang: OpenAI will be listed by year’s end; no longer considering a $100 billion investment.

【08:47】【Apple】Apple launches affordable MacBook Neo starting at $4,799, with four color options and iPhone A18 Pro chip, targeting students and challenging Windows PCs and Chromebooks.

【08:15】【AI + Broadcom Earnings】Broadcom’s AI revenue doubles; AI chip sales expected to exceed $100 billion next year. Shares rise 0.5% after hours.

【07:52】【Layoffs】Morgan Stanley reportedly plans to cut 3%, involving investment banking, trading, and asset management.

【06:49】【Iran Crisis】White House: Will take full control of Iran airspace in hours; Spain agrees to cooperate with US military (ongoing updates).

Below $1: US stock market overview on March 4

Wednesday: Dow up 238 points; Nasdaq up 1.3%. Iran denies indirect talks with US. Fed’s Milan supports continued rate cuts.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen announces measures to stabilize Persian Gulf oil transportation, indicating US intends to intervene in the Strait of Hormuz, blocked by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. Iran denies indirect negotiations.

See US stock close:

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Market risk appetite slightly cools; Dow rises by 238 points to 48,739; S&P 500 up 0.78% to 6,869; Nasdaq up 1.29% to 22,807.

Key stocks: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says the plan to invest $1 trillion in OpenAI may no longer be feasible. Nvidia gains 1.66%.

Tesla rises 3.4%; Broadcom reports earnings, shares up 1.2%.

The Fed releases the Beige Book, indicating seven of twelve districts see slight to moderate growth; five districts report flat or declining activity.

President Trump officially nominates Kevin Warsh to replace Powell as Fed Chair. Fed’s Stephen Miran believes rate cuts remain appropriate; it’s too early to assess the impact of Middle East war on the US economy.

US Defense Secretary Hagel says a US submarine sank an Iranian vessel in international waters—first attack on surface ships since WWII.

Oman reports a Maltese-flagged vessel, SAFEEN PRESTIGE, was hit by two missiles in the Strait of Hormuz. Turkey states NATO shot down an Iranian missile headed toward Turkish airspace.

The New York Times reports that on the second day of attacks, Iranian intelligence officials indirectly contacted the CIA to discuss ending the conflict. US officials doubt whether Trump or Iran are truly ready to de-escalate.

Markets focus on Iran’s successor and whether US and Israel will escalate bombing.

However, an Iranian intelligence source calls the reports “completely false” and part of wartime psychological operations.

Oil prices sharply retreat; US dollar index pulls back 0.28% to 98.78. Bitcoin briefly jumps 9.8% to $74,051.

With buying interest at lower levels, spot gold rebounds 2.31%, reaching $5,206.2 per ounce; US long-term yields stabilize at 4.101%.

DWS notes Iran’s crude oil output in January 2026 is projected at 3.13 million barrels/day, about 4% of global supply. Short-term supply-demand imbalance can push prices higher with even slight reductions. Future stability depends on OPEC’s ability to fill supply gaps. Darwei Kung, head of commodities at the firm, states OPEC’s spare capacity is only about half of Iran’s total production.

He warns that if airstrikes cause ships to sink in the Strait of Hormuz, the route could be closed for months, causing long-term supply disruptions. Ground attacks would cause even greater damage to supply. Both restricted shipping and full blockade could severely impact oil supplies.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updated. See: Next page

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Market Trends:

【21:30】【Iran Crisis】Vessels breach the Strait of Hormuz, attacked and on fire.

【21:00】【Oil Price Trend】How much could oil prices rise if the Strait remains blocked for weeks?

【19:00】Oil and gold continue rising; Dow futures up 45 points, Nasdaq futures up 0.2%.

【13:35】Dow futures down 225 points at 48,335; S&P futures down 41 points; Nasdaq futures down 212 points or 0.9% at 24,543.

【12:31】Dow futures down 369 points at 48,631; S&P futures down 50 points; Nasdaq futures down 206 points or 0.8% at 24,798.

【11:52】【Iran Crisis】Juncy Henderson Investment: Current oil prices reflect a “limited scale, short duration” conflict scenario.

【11:48】【Iran Crisis】UAE stock markets closed for two days; UAE government announces full coverage of stranded travelers’ expenses.

【11:25】【Iran Crisis】Middle East conflict disrupts energy markets; economists warn of increased global risks; these countries are most affected…

【10:50】【Iran Crisis】If the Strait of Hormuz closes for a month, Goldman Sachs warns European natural gas prices could surge 130%, and crude oil could rise by $15 at worst.

【10:09】【Major Bank Views】UBS downgrades US stocks to “in line with the market” for six reasons; remains optimistic on emerging markets and four key countries.

【08:06】【Oil Price Trend】Iran crisis causes oil prices to soar; Brent up over 8%; Strait of Hormuz shutdown.

【07:50】【Gold Price Trend】Gold rises nearly 2%, back above $5,300; silver up over 2%, driven by Middle East war risk aversion.

【07:30】【Iran Crisis】Bloomberg estimates oil could rise 49%; Trump: killing Qasem Soleimani and three Americans, fighting will continue until goals are achieved (ongoing updates).

【07:30】【Global Weekly Preview】Focus on geopolitical developments and US employment data; February unemployment expected to stay at 4.3%.

【07:30】US stocks declined last Friday. US financial stocks plunged; American Express down 8%, Goldman Sachs down 7%, dragging Dow down 521 points to 48,977; S&P down 0.4% to 6,878; AI stocks remain under pressure, Nvidia down 4%, dragging Nasdaq down 0.9% to 22,668.

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Market risk appetite remains cautious; Dow closes down 403 points at 48,501; S&P 500 down 0.9% at 6,816; Nasdaq down 1% at 22,516.

Oil prices rose 5% at the close; NYMEX crude at $74.65, Brent at $81.72.

Trump announced on Truth Social that he ordered the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide political risk insurance and guarantees at very favorable rates for all maritime trade, especially energy shipments, passing through the Gulf region. This service will be available to all shipping companies.

He also indicated that if necessary, the US Navy will begin escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.

“Regardless, the US will ensure that energy supplies to the world flow freely. America’s economic and military strength is the strongest on Earth—more actions are coming.”

The US dollar index briefly rose 1.3%, then settled at a 0.7% gain to 99.04. The 10-year US Treasury yield remains around 4%.

Gold remains under pressure, down 4.3% at $5,094.87; silver down 8% at $82.23.

Manulife notes that global bond yields have recently risen, reflecting concerns over inflation resurgence and future central bank policies. However, if the conflict lasts more than a few weeks, the impact on markets and the economy could become more significant.

Pictet Wealth Management states that in the very short term, the Iran war will weigh on stocks due to geopolitical uncertainty and rising oil prices. But history shows such negative effects are usually short-lived. Investors are advised to prioritize tangible assets—gold, metals, and commodities.

The firm suggests that if the conflict remains short, oil prices could revert to pre-crisis levels, with overall macroeconomic impact limited. However, central banks may adopt a more cautious stance in the short term. The Fed might delay rate cuts depending on the duration and severity of the conflict. As long as the scope remains limited, the dollar could strengthen temporarily, given US energy independence. If new oil shocks occur, markets may see the US as more resilient than heavily oil-dependent Asian countries.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updated. See: Next page

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