[Red Envelope] March 5 Review: Nanny-level contingency plans precisely timed, T+0 risk-free arbitrage in oil and gas flows back, still fully aligned with the logic!

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Please watch the VCR:

Morning bidding information:

1. Zhaochi Co., Ltd., largest order, AI videos, LED, reverse push smart themes below expectations, oil divergence continues as expected.
2. Huacan Optoelectronics, near 25-minute order addition, reverse push Zhaochi’s LED, reverse push smart themes below expectations, oil divergence continues as expected.
3. Intelligent automatic control, 15-minute order of 4 billion, unable to take the largest order, reverse push only theme below expectations.
4. Shun Na Co., Ltd., power + computing power, oil hostile attributes, reverse push technology 2, some still want to do it, so oil reflux 2 will be delayed.
5. Wangli Security, three, reverse push 2nd board node, third board group approval.
6. Zhuolang Intelligent, smart theme, not the largest order either, reverse push theme below expectations.

Risk/Opportunity message tips and analysis:

1. Pre-market tip: Japan and South Korea are both catching rebounds, so the environment in large A shares is probably good. Under this logic, it explains why futures are strong in the morning but stocks are not. Large A shares are having meetings + delayed opening, so remember the old rule: start with the gap-up, focus on support. Yesterday’s pre-set mentioned that morning reflux follows arbitrage or weak-to-strong core. If no reflux in the morning, look at T+0 ETF, LOF bottom-fishing or core bottom-fishing.

2. At 9:18, it was indicated that smart stocks opened with a straight line, and a key condition is the largest order. Why? Because in other mainline environments, the largest order may not be needed, but yesterday’s rotation without main themes was sneaky, indicating no real intent to trade. Shun Na is power + computing power, so it should be viewed with Yunnan Energy’s recognition. Remember the opposing effect mentioned yesterday? This also explains why oil isn’t refluxing. Before Huacan appeared, I thought it was a seedance pricing large order, but looking at the bidding, many misunderstood, or it was the main force deliberately selling seedance.

Wangli is third, so from the third board group perspective, watch for order cancellations. Smart is too broad; Wangli can also be involved, but mainly used for the third push and second entry tier.

3. At 9:22, it was noted that Shuifa is at the floor, which is negative feedback for oil. Gentle yielding can better promote oil reflux and expectations. Watch if it can rebound. Zhaochi was mentioned above. Two straight lines in smart stocks but not the largest order—this is problematic; think about it. Huacan and Zhaochi’s new themes from the previous day are easily abandoned, so turnover isn’t a buy point. Opening without an attack is a sell point. Negative feedback in oil is very fragmented: futures are rising, but oil shows strong negative feedback, so consider delaying oil divergence 2, as pre-set strategies have indicated.

4. At 9:25, it was noted that Huacan added a straight line. I thought AI glasses were also in the smart category. Later, a bunch of optoelectronics rushed in during bidding, combined with Zhaochi, it’s clear—missed the early move. Too bad.

5. At 9:29, many oil stocks rebounded, but obviously not matching futures. Morning divergence continues, and afternoon reflux expectations increase. Correspondingly, as pre-set yesterday suggested, it’s time to lay low. Watch for unusual signals. I’ve been saying this from the start: beware of bad news backstabbing. The gambling nature is high. Combining today’s mismatch between futures and bidding, T+0 bottom-fishing is the best choice. The highest bid was Zhongxu, institutional stocks, increasing payout expectations. Reverse push theme is not strong, indicating mainline reflux isn’t smooth. Finally, optoelectronics opened high, which is a thematic buy point—who first hits the board has the chance to get the highest premium.

From the bidding conclusion, we can derive:

1. Smart theme below expectations; optoelectronics’ new theme overshadowed yesterday’s smart economy, indicating no buy point, only when to sell.
2. Shun Na with a straight line, reverse push tech reflux 2 with ideas. Morning power + computing power suggests continued strength; sell points can be delayed. Reflux 2 buy-in isn’t cost-effective; the top-tier with the highest open is Hanlan.
3. Zhaochi with the largest order, combined with Huacan confirming themes. The highest gainers are buy points; the first to hit the board is a buy point.
4. Oil bidding below expectations; futures are strong, indicating oil still has reflux expectations. Morning conflict with tech, but afternoon reflux expectations increase. Morning Jinmei coal board, you can start bottom-fishing gradually—logic explained below.

Today’s operations:

1. Yan Hua Intelligent, sold half at 7 and 5 positions, cleared.
2. Molong, backstab at the end of the session, sold half, cleared everything before the halt.
3. Approaching noon, bought a LOF in oil; in the afternoon, Intercontinental surged, LOF broke the moving average, cleared.

Today’s review: The biggest risk for the oil theme has arrived. No one can guess if there’s a reversal; it’s all about news being bigger than the sky. Without news, it’s manageable—just follow the K-line and cycles. When bad news hits, it’s about who runs fastest. I’ve emphasized from the start: if you didn’t squeeze in, you don’t have the rhythm. Operations lagging behind should watch out for news backstabs. T+0 is the best choice—at least you can run away and sleep well.

Let’s verify the logic:

1. Review yesterday’s preset ideas; applying them to today’s market makes sense. If you only consider the cycle logic for oil, the recovery expectation is there. Yesterday’s divergence in the back row, today’s in the front row, turned consistent. The question I mentioned in the comments yesterday…

Today’s Jinmei coal surge isn’t surprising. Why did Jinmei coal surge now? After the surge, China Oil Capital also shot up—logic of small followers bringing big leaders back. The LOF buy point mentioned earlier, what’s the sell point? Think about it: if reflux is the goal, the small follower leading the big brother still applies to oil and gas sectors, i.e., new first boards leading to Intercontinental’s rise. The result is Intercontinental leading the charge. Later, those without initiative will follow, and the surge of Intercontinental might be the end of the theme’s reflux. This is similar to yesterday’s Yu Neng board, where I said don’t look at the rest—just follow the trend. You can also sell based on the Intercontinental template or break the moving average.

The new theme logic today also verifies: if a new theme appears within a new theme, it tends to turn into an old theme. Today, optoelectronics directly took the position during bidding. At least Yan Hua Intelligent, which can’t open a straight line, shouldn’t be chased. No buy point, even if it hits the board, it’s just a pullback, not a direct sweep.

The opposing logic was also vividly demonstrated today: Shun Na opened with a straight line, oil dropped sharply. This indicates that the tech reflux 2 in the morning is valid. The old cycle of power + computing power also performed today. This means the tech cycle is ending soon. Oil depends on whether the small follower can perform and lead. Coal and chemical sectors are risk-averse logic; the sudden performance of Jinmei coal makes you question: is it really for coal, or is there another purpose?

Point 4 is omitted; the above already summarizes.

2. Yesterday, brothers asked how to play if oil bidding is strong. The order remains: small follower pushes big brother, the strongest small follower gains premium or directly shifts from weak to strong big brother. The safest is T+0 arbitrage. I also said it’s a bit late to buy tomorrow; you need guts because of large divergence. Otherwise, the entire sector might disappear, and prolonged delays will dull everyone and increase negotiations.

3. Revisit the logic from the day before yesterday; this kind of theme is most stable with T+0.

4. The plan I mentioned yesterday is basically a preemptive move. T+0 ETFs or LOFs, rhythm is right, can profit in the afternoon. Even if the rhythm is off, no worries about bad news backstabbing and inability to sell on T+1.

5. No issues with the overall market judgment.

6. No issues with the logic between oil and tech, or new themes.

Witness history with the consecutive limit-ups, brothers—second board capped.

Second board:

• Intelligent automatic control, no fermentation, see who does better tomorrow.
• Zhuolang Intelligent, same.
• Shun Na Co., power + computing, still Yunnan Energy logic, watch for persistence. Power + computing power is strong again today; if it’s to last, computing still has reflux chances.
• Wangli Security, third board group, leading echelon, first board also has three, so expect competition—see which echelon is recognized.
• Hanlan Cable, follow Shun Na’s turnover, second wave needs attention.
• Jicheng Electronics, power grid, poor stock nature, prone to volume spikes.
• Tongguang Cable, follow Hanlan.

First boards: many and mixed

• Zhaochi, order increased, fermentation.
• Huacan, same, 2cm start might overextend.
• Guoxin Optoelectronics, fastest to rise, average share capital.
• Guanjie, Jiangsu, low price, large market cap, decent share capital.
• Autot Electronic, poor share capital, late in the session.
• Tongxing Optoelectronics, poor share capital, small market cap.
• Titan, debt-stock, possible debt play, third-tier stocks.
• Shenfang Textile, third-tier.
• Huaying, low price, decent share capital, Haixia, slightly larger market cap.
• Yashi Optoelectronics, third-tier pool.
• Rifa Precision, robotics + intelligent manufacturing, Zhejiang.

Thanks to brothers @Dming for supporting me in the last post, and to brothers @我曾踏足山颠, @水云涧2026, @知性捕手, @unique1, @旅途图, @游刃有余x for your support. Wishing everyone’s accounts stay red!

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