Aiming at a huge supply gap, claiming to "stabilize global supply," Qatar's LNG exports are interrupted, and the U.S. is racing against time to seize the market.

Due to the impact of the new round of conflicts between the U.S. and Iran, the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market has suddenly changed. As major LNG supplier Qatar’s exports are interrupted, prices in Europe and Asia have soared. U.S. LNG exporters are racing against time, trying to seize opportunities amid this energy shock.

Energy Company Stocks Surge

According to CNBC, on March 2, two key energy facilities in Qatar were attacked during the conflict and forced to halt LNG production, causing a significant supply gap in the global energy market. Data from international energy consulting firm Kpler shows Qatar is the world’s second-largest LNG exporter after the U.S., accounting for about 20% of global supply.

After the supply disruption from Qatar, U.S. major LNG producers Cheniere Energy and Risk Global saw their stock prices rise approximately 7% and nearly 24%, respectively. Risk Global CEO Michael Sabell stated during the company’s Q4 earnings call on March 2, “The U.S. has the world’s largest new LNG capacity and will play a key role in the future.” The market is rapidly betting that U.S. energy suppliers will be among the winners in this historic energy market turmoil.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, in 2023, the U.S. surpassed Qatar and Australia to become the world’s largest LNG exporter. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict erupted, Europe replaced Asia as the main destination for U.S. LNG. In 2022, Europe received about 69% of U.S. LNG exports, up from 34% in 2021. From January to November 2025, this proportion remained around 68%. U.S. LNG exports exceeded 100 million tons in 2025, with several new plants under construction.

Alex Mandon, a natural gas market analyst at international energy consulting firm Rapidan Energy, believes that unlike other exporters, U.S. LNG supply contracts often do not specify fixed destinations, allowing cargoes to be reallocated based on market needs. “This flexibility is crucial in ‘crisis moments’ and is a unique advantage of the U.S. LNG industry. For example, after the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Europe faced a huge energy gap, and the flexible deployment of U.S. LNG helped it capture the European market.”

Mandon also notes that some major commodity traders controlling U.S. LNG supplies are profiting from this conflict, “They can resell energy commodities at prices 50% higher than the original cost.”

U.S. LNG Export Facilities Near Capacity

Some believe that the recent strength of the U.S. in the global energy market has supported aggressive practices by natural gas developers. The Wall Street Journal published a commentary titled “U.S. Natural Gas Exports Save the World” on March 3, stating that a decade ago, the U.S. had almost no LNG export capacity. Now, during geopolitical tensions, it plays a role in “stabilizing global supply.” Forbes recently reported that U.S. LNG exporters “provide essential energy security for Europe and allies worldwide.”

Bloomberg analysis on March 3 states that after significant reductions in Middle Eastern natural gas supplies, U.S. natural gas exporters have received a clear boost. Major U.S. natural gas companies are actively expanding capacity.

From the supply side, Cheniere Energy’s Texas plant is gradually increasing production, and Risk Global’s new energy processing plant is accelerating its commissioning. A joint project between Qatar and ExxonMobil in Texas is expected to deliver its first cargoes in Q1 2026.

However, several energy experts cited in the report say that since domestic capacity is nearing its limit, the actual benefit for U.S. energy suppliers may be limited. Columbia University’s Senior Research Fellow Ella Joseph believes that U.S. LNG export facilities are operating at near full capacity, with only about 5% surplus capacity, making it impossible to fully replace Qatar’s capacity. While Michael Sabell emphasizes that U.S. natural gas will play a key role amid market turbulence, he also admits that sustained high price spreads are needed to offset the time costs of transatlantic transportation.

Rising European Energy Bills

As U.S. energy exporters target market opportunities, Europe may become one of the biggest victims of the market turmoil. Industry data shows that from 2026 to 2029, the U.S. will supply about 70% of Europe’s LNG. A Politico article on April 4 analyzed that natural gas accounts for 20% of Europe’s energy consumption and is critical for heating, power generation, and industry. Rising prices will push up energy bills for European industries and households, which are already among the highest in the world.

Data indicates that due to tensions in the Middle East disrupting global energy flows, European natural gas prices surged sharply. The European benchmark natural gas futures price briefly rose above €60 per megawatt-hour on March 3, doubling from the previous week. UK natural gas prices also increased by 45%. In contrast, U.S. natural gas prices only rose slightly by 3.5%. Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that if the Strait of Hormuz experiences a month-long shipping disruption, European natural gas prices could increase by 130% from current levels. Kpler oil analyst Matt Smith notes that Europe is now seeking supplies that traditionally belonged to Asian markets, mainly supplied by Australia, the world’s third-largest LNG exporter, which is far from Europe.

A March 2 report from Russia Today cited analysts warning that this turmoil could cause the most severe impact on Europe’s natural gas market since 2022. Since the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the EU has abandoned relatively cheap Russian pipeline gas in favor of U.S. LNG. As the heating season ends, gas storage utilization remains below previous years, and the EU needs to import large quantities during summer to replenish stocks for the next winter. Experts warn that if conflicts in the Gulf persist, higher natural gas costs could be passed on to households, ultimately fueling inflation in Europe.

Source: Global Times

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