Crypto Analyst Terpin Forecasts Bitcoin Could Retreat to $40K Range Based on Halving Cycles

According to recent market analysis, prominent crypto strategist Terpin believes that Bitcoin’s post-halving movements typically follow predictable cyclical patterns. This observation is grounded in extensive historical data that reveals how the world’s largest cryptocurrency behaves during these critical junctures.

Understanding the Post-Halving Market Pattern

Terpin emphasizes that the market dynamics following a halving event are not random but rather follow a consistent cycle that has repeated throughout Bitcoin’s history. The data suggests that after each halving, the market experiences a characteristic trajectory where multiple phases of expansion and contraction emerge. This cyclical nature provides valuable context for understanding where prices might head in the coming months. The typical pattern shows a significant peak occurring during the fourth quarter following the halving event, which aligns with what investors observed in previous cycles.

Terpin’s Price Targets and Timeline

Rather than calling an immediate bottom, Terpin maintains a cautious stance on premature declarations of market lows. He argues that current price levels around $72.66K—while representing a significant valuation—may not represent the final capitulation point. According to his analysis, Bitcoin could experience further downside pressure and potentially retreat into the $50,000 to $40,000 range before establishing a stable foundation. Some analysts have even suggested that testing the $80,000 or $60,000 levels first remains possible, but Terpin’s framework suggests deeper corrections are likely within the current cycle.

Current Market Status and Implications

As of early March 2026, Bitcoin is trading at $72.66K, positioning itself above some of the more bearish targets but well below previous cycle peaks. Terpin’s cyclical analysis provides investors with a framework for understanding potential volatility ahead. His perspective suggests that patience and preparation for extended consolidation periods may be warranted rather than expecting an immediate recovery to new highs. The analyst’s view underscores the importance of recognizing that post-halving environments often require more time and testing before establishing sustainable bull market foundations.