U.S. Stock Preview | Three Major Stock Index Futures Rise Together, Dollar Slightly Retreats as Safe-Haven Demand Eases, Broadcom Reports Earnings After Hours

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. On Wednesday, March 4th, U.S. stock futures rose across the board. As of press time, Nasdaq futures up 0.06%, S&P 500 futures up 0.14%, Dow futures up 0.24%.

2. European markets also gained: Germany DAX up 1.63%, UK FTSE 100 up 0.65%, France CAC 40 up 1.03%, Euro Stoxx 50 up 1.65%.

3. Crude oil prices increased: WTI up 0.80% at $75.16 per barrel; Brent up 1.55% at $82.66 per barrel.

Risk aversion wanes, dollar pulls back from three-month highs. The dollar retreated after reaching a three-month high on Tuesday. The rally was mainly driven by safe-haven flows and rising oil prices due to US-Iran tensions. J.P. Morgan economist Mohit Kumar noted that news of Trump proposing to insure ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf states possibly retaliating against Iran boosted market sentiment, raising hopes that the conflict could end sooner. As of press time, the US dollar index (DXY) fell 0.24% to 98.82. Meanwhile, spot gold surged over 2% to $5194 per ounce; silver rose more than 5% to $86.28 per ounce.

Is the stock market correction over? Goldman Sachs CEO warns markets haven’t priced in the true cost of conflict. Goldman Sachs Chairman and CEO David Solomon expressed surprise at the relatively mild market reactions to escalating Middle East tensions, adding that it will take weeks to fully understand the impact of the US-Israel-Iran standoff affecting the broader Middle East. He said, “I’ve seen recent market reactions, and I’m actually surprised. They’ve been quite moderate.” Citing recent data, he noted the S&P 500 declined less than 1% on Monday and Tuesday, indicating a mild correction amid geopolitical tensions. Traders are also sharply lowering expectations for Fed rate cuts due to fears that rising oil prices could reignite inflation and tighten monetary policy, which is a core reason for the large-scale selloff in stocks on Tuesday.

Don’t rely on Trump to save the market! Wall Street warns he can’t control the situation this time. Strategists warn against depending on “Trump put options” amid Iran tensions. US and Israeli military actions have destabilized the Middle East and could push oil prices higher, risking renewed inflation in the US. The conflict’s duration and resolution remain uncertain, increasing the risk of prolonged instability and unpredictable White House consequences. Baird strategist Ross Mayfield said, “Regardless of how quickly the conflict ends, the risk of widespread damage to Middle Eastern oil infrastructure could prolong the market impact.” Matt Gertken of BCA Research added that only when a “market-driven recession” risk—such as a 10-15% stock decline—materializes will the White House feel real pressure. John Briggs of France’s Trade Bank US said only when bond yields rise enough to cause chaos and spill over into credit and equities might Trump attempt to withdraw from the conflict.

Are US stocks at a buy-the-dip point? Deutsche Bank warns: Beware of catching a falling knife! As US-Iran tensions escalate, investors wonder if the “buy the dip” strategy still works. Deutsche Bank believes the key issue this week is whether oil and gas prices will surge enough to hinder economic growth and derail the recovery. Strategist Henry Allen said, “We previously noted geopolitical events rarely cause sustained market reactions. But exceptions occur when such events impact macroeconomic channels. Iran’s situation is a typical example.” He outlined three conditions that could trigger a sharp downturn: oil prices soaring 50-100% and staying high for months; rising oil prices pushing the economy into recession or severe slowdown; or central banks adopting hawkish policies in response, potentially causing the S&P 500 to fall over 15%.

AI panic peaks! As “AI disrupts everything,” Wall Street loses faith in buybacks. Despite months of sharp declines, US software companies have increased and accelerated stock buyback programs. Compared to last year, buyback announcements have nearly quadrupled in scale, but some institutional investors and strategists remain skeptical about the sustainability of short-term rebounds driven by buybacks. They warn that after brief, small gains, the market could continue its downward trend amid “AI disruption” narratives. Investors are eager for software firms to demonstrate unprecedented AI-driven growth—proof that cutting-edge AI technology is a revenue generator, not a “profit killer.”

Middle East conflict destroys economic confidence! Fed’s Kashkari urgently warns: Monetary policy outlook is now completely uncertain. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the intensifying Middle East conflict adds to US economic uncertainty, making Fed policy and interest rate paths harder to predict. As a voting member of the FOMC this year, Kashkari initially expected inflation pressures to ease by 2026, allowing for rate cuts. Now, he says, “We need to observe this new shock—possibly a new variable affecting the global economy—how long it lasts and how deep it goes.” He added, “Both the Fed and markets are asking: how long will this conflict last? How bad could it get?” He noted that geopolitical conflicts’ impact on inflation is unpredictable, so he’s waiting for more data before making judgments.

Tom Lee signals a turnaround: The most intense selloff ends this week, March to be a “rebound month” for tech stocks and crypto. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, dubbed “Wall Street’s oracle,” predicts that despite recent geopolitical and technical corrections, cryptocurrencies, software stocks, and the so-called “MAG-7” tech giants will recover this month—they are either already at or near their lows. In an interview, Lee said, “I believe the most intense phase of selling will end this week. I expect stocks to rise in March.”

Tesla superfan investor buys 1 million shares of Nvidia (NVDA.US), backing AI as a real growth driver! Billionaire Leo KoGuan, one of Tesla’s largest individual shareholders, announced he bought 1 million Nvidia shares on Tuesday. He posted on social media, “I am convinced AI is not a bubble; it’s just the beginning. I plan to buy more Nvidia stock soon to calm the market.”

Apple (AAPL.US) M5 chip surge boosts MacBook prices; local AI becomes a new hardware selling point. Apple launched new MacBook Pro and MacBook Air models powered by its latest M5 chip, along with an updated Studio Display lineup—its largest Mac update in over a year. This move offers Apple a chance to revive Mac demand and demonstrates that more AI workloads are shifting to local devices rather than cloud. The new models come at higher prices. Due to memory suppliers favoring more profitable AI data centers over consumer hardware, memory supply tightens, raising costs. Last holiday quarter, Mac sales fell nearly 7% to $8.39 billion, well below analysts’ expectations of nearly $9 billion. The new models aim to attract users still on older Intel or early M-series systems, but prices are rising amid supply constraints.

Intel (INTC.US) leadership shake-up: 17-year veteran Yerr to retire, chip veteran Bharath to succeed as Chairman. Intel announced that long-time Chairman Frank Yerr plans to retire, marking a significant leadership change as CEO Pat Gelsinger seeks to reshape the company. Senior chip executive Craig Bharath will succeed Yerr as Chairman after the May annual shareholders meeting. Seaport Securities analyst Jay Goldberg said, “Yerr’s departure was overdue. During his tenure, Intel made many poor decisions.” Three former Intel executives also welcomed the move, seeing Bharath’s experience as a positive step.

Not AI’s victim, but AI’s master! Cybersecurity giant CrowdStrike (CRWD.US) beats expectations across the board. In Q4 FY2026, CrowdStrike reported total revenue of $1.305 billion, up 23% YoY, slightly above the market’s $1.3 billion estimate. Subscription revenue reached about $1.242 billion, also up 23%. Adjusted EPS was $1.12, beating expectations of $1.10. As of January 31, 2026, annual recurring revenue (ARR) soared 24% YoY to $5.25 billion, with $330.7 million added in Q4—up 47% YoY, a record high and well above the ~$300 million forecast. The company’s guidance for FY2027 Q1 and full year also exceeded market estimates. These results weaken the extreme narrative that “AI will rapidly disrupt cybersecurity software.”

“Cost-effectiveness” becomes the main consumer theme! Discount retailer Ross Stores (ROST.US) Q4 sales hit new highs, full-year guidance beats expectations. The company’s Q4 same-store sales rose 9%, well above the 4.03% forecast; EPS was $2.00, higher than the $1.90 expected; revenue hit a record $6.64 billion, surpassing the $6.4 billion estimate. For the new fiscal year, the company projects 3-4% same-store sales growth, with a median above the 3.05% analyst consensus. This indicates strong consumer demand for discounted apparel and accessories despite macroeconomic uncertainties. Ross also announced up to $2.55 billion in stock buybacks for FY2026 and 2027. As of press time, Ross Stores pre-market rose over 7%.

Key Economic Data and Events

• 23:00 Beijing Time: US February ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
• 03:00 Beijing Time (next day): Fed Beige Book release
• 05:00 Beijing Time (next day): US Senate votes on Iran War Powers Resolution
• Thursday morning: Broadcom (AVGO.US)
• Thursday pre-market: Kroger (KR.US), GSL (GSL.US), JD.com (JD.US), Bilibili (BILI.US), HCM (HCM.US), GOTO (GOTU.US), Tuniu (TOUR.US)