U.S. Stocks Close | Dow Jones Up 238 Points, Nasdaq Rises 1.3%
Yellen Denies Indirectly Asking China for Talks
Federal Reserve Board Member Mural Supports Continued Rate Cuts

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced that the government will implement a series of measures to stabilize oil transportation in the Persian Gulf, indicating U.S. intention to intervene in the Strait of Hormuz, which has been blocked by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Meanwhile, Iran denies indirect negotiations with the U.S.

Market risk aversion has slightly eased, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average initially rising by up to 352 points, closing up 238 points at 48,739; the S&P 500 index at 6,869, up 0.78%; and the Nasdaq at 22,807, up 1.29%.

In focus stocks, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said that the plan to invest $100 billion in OpenAI may no longer be feasible. Nvidia rose 1.66%.

Tesla increased by 3.4%, and Broadcom reported earnings after market close on Wednesday, with the stock up 1.2%.

The Federal Reserve released the “Beige Book,” indicating that in seven of the twelve districts, overall economic activity grew at a modest to moderate pace; five districts reported flat or declining activity, up from four previously.

President Trump officially nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair. Fed Governor Stephen Miran stated he believes continuing rate cuts remains appropriate, and that it is too early to take a stance on the impact of the Middle East war on the U.S. economy.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced that a U.S. submarine sank an Iranian vessel in international waters. This is the first attack on surface ships by a U.S. submarine since World War II.

Oman reported that a Maltese-flagged cargo ship, the SAFEEN PRESTIGE, was hit by two missiles in the Strait of Hormuz. Turkey stated that NATO shot down an Iranian missile fired toward Turkish airspace.

The New York Times reported that on the second day of the attack, Iranian intelligence personnel indirectly contacted the CIA to discuss ending the conflict. An American official familiar with the contact expressed skepticism about whether the Trump administration or Iran are truly ready to seek a de-escalation mechanism.

Markets are watching Iran’s successor choices and whether the U.S. and Israel will escalate bombing.

However, media sources citing an Iranian intelligence official said that such reports are complete fabrications and part of psychological warfare during wartime.

Oil prices sharply narrowed their gains, with the U.S. dollar index retreating 0.28% to 98.78. Bitcoin surged 9.8% to $74,051.

Supported by buying on dips, spot gold rebounded 2.31%, reaching a high of $5,206.2 per ounce; U.S. long-term bond yields stabilized at around 4.101%.

DWS estimates that Iran’s crude oil production in January 2026 will be 3.13 million barrels per day, accounting for about 4% of global supply. Due to short-term supply and demand inflexibility, even slight reductions in supply can drive oil prices sharply higher. Whether prices can stabilize depends on OPEC’s ability to fill supply gaps in time. Darwei Kung, head of commodities at the firm, noted that OPEC’s idle capacity is currently only about half of Iran’s total production.

He added that if airstrikes cause ships to sink in the Strait of Hormuz, the shipping route could be blocked for months, causing long-term supply disruptions. Compared to airstrikes alone, ground offensives would cause even greater damage to supply. Therefore, whether the Strait’s shipping is restricted or fully blocked, it could severely impact oil supplies.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating; see the next page for details.

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Market Trends:

【21:30】【Iran Crisis】A cargo ship forced into the Strait of Hormuz caught fire after being attacked

【21:00】【Oil Price Trend】How much would oil prices rise if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for weeks?

【19:00】Oil and gold prices continue to rise; Dow futures up 45 points, Nasdaq futures up 0.2%

【13:35】Dow futures down 225 points at 48,335; S&P futures down 41 points; Nasdaq futures down 212 points or 0.9% at 24,543.

【12:32】US Stock Analysis｜Iran Situation Impacted Dow Jones Nearly 1,300 Points; Tech Stocks to Watch, Underperformers to Consider

【11:59】【Oil Price Analysis】Oil surged again by 1%, hovering at high levels; Trump administration providing insurance for oil tankers; Analysis: NY crude at $80 faces strong resistance

【11:45】【Iran Crisis】Middle East tensions shake Asia-Pacific markets; South Korea’s stock market drops over 9%, triggering circuit breakers; Japanese stocks fall over 2,000 points

【11:31】【AI + Models】OpenAI releases GPT-5.3 Instant, offering more accurate and smoother conversational experience

【10:21】【Gold Price Trend】Gold and silver sharply declined then rebounded; gold in Asia surpasses $5,100; silver rebounds 3% to $85

【08:49】【Iran Crisis】Fed officials say war adds new uncertainties to monetary policy; energy prices become a key factor

【07:23】【Iran Crisis】Trump: Cutting trade with Spain, ending the war, oil prices will be lower than before

【06:51】【Iran Crisis】Islamic Revolutionary Guard: Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for 3 weeks, global economy faces serious crisis (ongoing updates)

Below $1: US stock market conditions on March 3

Tuesday: Trump offers insurance guarantees + naval escort for oil tankers; Dow only down 403 points

On the fourth day of the Iran conflict, stock movements followed news of the situation; due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices surged by 9.5%, reaching $77.98; Dow fell by 1,277 points or 2.6%, low at 47,626; S&P dropped 2.5%, low at 6,710; Nasdaq declined 2.7%, low at 22,124.

See the market close:

▼Click the image to enlarge

Trump announced that he has arranged insurance for ships in the Strait of Hormuz, which could restore oil transportation and stabilize prices. The Dow closed down only 403 points or 0.8%, at 48,501; the S&P fell 0.9%, at 6,816; the Nasdaq declined 1%, at 22,516.

Oil prices rose 5% at the close, with NY crude at $74.65 and Brent crude at $81.72.

Trump posted on Truth Social that he has ordered the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide political risk insurance and guarantees at very reasonable prices for all maritime trade in the Gulf region, especially energy shipments. This service will be available to all shipping companies.

He also indicated that if necessary, the U.S. Navy will begin escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz promptly.

“Regardless, the U.S. will ensure the free flow of energy worldwide. America’s economic and military strength is the strongest on Earth—more actions are coming.”

The U.S. dollar index initially rose 1.3%, then settled at a 0.7% gain, at 99.04. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains around 4%.

Gold prices remained under pressure, down 4.3%, at $5,094.87; silver fell 8%, to $82.23.

Manulife noted that recent rises in global bond yields may reflect market concerns about a resurgence of inflation and worries over future central bank decisions. However, if the conflict lasts more than a few weeks, its impact on markets and the economy could become more significant.

Pictet Wealth Management said that in the very short term, the Iran war will negatively impact stocks due to geopolitical uncertainty and soaring oil prices. But history shows such negative effects are usually short-lived. Investors are advised to prioritize tangible assets—including gold, metals, and other commodities.

The firm added that if the conflict remains short, oil prices could return to pre-crisis levels, with overall macroeconomic impact remaining limited. However, central banks may adopt a more cautious stance in the short term. The Fed might delay future rate cuts depending on the duration and severity of the conflict. As long as the scope of the conflict is limited, the dollar could strengthen temporarily, given the U.S.’s relative energy independence. If new oil shocks occur, markets may see the U.S. as more resilient than Asian countries heavily dependent on oil imports.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating; see the next page for details.

▼Click the image to enlarge

Market Trends:

【13:27】Dow futures down 336 points at 48,609; S&P futures down 49 points at 6,839; Nasdaq futures down 215 points or 0.9% at 24,809.

【11:41】【Iran Crisis】Franklin D. Roosevelt CEO: As long as other Middle Eastern countries do not retaliate, the conflict is unlikely to last more than five weeks.

【11:19】【Iran Crisis】Oil surged another 1% early; analysis: the conflict is expected to be short-lived; NY crude at $70-75, gold to retreat after tensions ease.

【10:50】【AI + Competition】OpenAI users launch boycott; Anthropic Claude surpasses ChatGPT, becomes top app on US Apple App Store.

【10:46】【AI + Defense】Sam Altman: Adding clauses with the Department of Defense; clarifying AI cannot be used for surveillance of U.S. citizens; OpenAI services will not be used by defense intelligence units.

【10:36】【U.S. Tariffs】U.S. appeals court rejects government’s request to delay tariff refunds; refunds can be processed quickly.

【10:10】【AI Frontline】Elon Musk’s X and xAI reportedly planning to raise $17.5 billion to pay off debt.

【09:02】【Iran Crisis】Liu: Planning to curb oil prices; Trump administration reportedly has no current plans to use strategic petroleum reserves.

【08:39】【Fed Rate Cuts】Yellen: Iran crisis impacts U.S. economy and inflation; likely to make Fed more cautious.

【08:19】【U.S. Economy】JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon warns inflation could be a “party pooper” for the U.S. economy after “cockroach theory.”

【08:08】【AI + Nvidia Chips】U.S. considers restricting Nvidia H200 chips; limit of 75,000 units per Chinese company.

【07:25】【Iran Crisis】Trump: Four main targets for Iran; U.S. Defense Department reports firing tens of thousands of missiles over two days, including ground-launched missiles from the U.S. (ongoing updates).

Below $1: US stock market conditions on March 2

Monday: Trump’s insurance guarantees + naval escort; Dow only down 521 points

On the fourth day of the Iran war, stock movements followed news of the conflict; due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices surged by 9%, reaching $77.98; Dow fell 1,277 points or 2.6%, low at 47,626; S&P dropped 2.5%, low at 6,710; Nasdaq declined 2.7%, low at 22,124.

See the market close:

▼Click the image to enlarge

Trump announced arrangements for insurance for ships in the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to restore oil flow and stabilize prices. The Dow closed down only 403 points or 0.8%, at 48,501; the S&P fell 0.9%, at 6,816; the Nasdaq declined 1%, at 22,516.

Oil prices ended the day up 5%, with NY crude at $74.65 and Brent at $81.72.

Trump posted on Truth Social that he has ordered the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide political risk insurance and guarantees at very reasonable prices for all maritime trade in the Gulf, especially energy shipments. This service will be available to all shipping companies.

He also indicated that if necessary, the U.S. Navy will begin escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz promptly.

“Regardless, the U.S. will ensure the free flow of energy worldwide. America’s economic and military strength is the strongest on Earth—more actions are coming.”

The U.S. dollar index initially rose 1.3%, then settled at a 0.7% gain, at 99.04. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains around 4%.

Gold prices remained under pressure, down 4.3%, at $5,094.87; silver fell 8%, to $82.23.