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Baseline Scenario (65%): Volatility to bottom out, first suppress then rise
• Trading Range: $1850–$2050
• Rhythm: Rebound from $1900–$1860 support, stabilize; heating up with the upcoming halving in late month, gradually rising
• Key: Steady above $2050 → open space for $2150–$2300
• Suitable for: Buying low and selling high, avoid chasing the rally
2) Optimistic Scenario (20%): Volume breakout, medium-term rebound
• Trigger Conditions: Federal Reserve signals dovish stance, BTC breaks out strongly, capital flows back into ETH-based assets
• Trend: Break through $2050–$2100, rebound target $2300–$2600
• Signal: Consecutive volume increase on daily chart, stabilize above $2100