Mid-January: The Major Volatility Window Is Coming

If the rebound at the beginning of the year was just a "test,"
then this week and next week are the stress tests that will determine whether the spring market will succeed.
Events that occurred last week already helped support the market:
‍#美股 The three major indices rise
‍$BTC Slight rebound in BTC
Improved risk appetite
But don’t celebrate too early.
Mid-January is always the time when bulls and bears are most likely to face off directly.
1️⃣ Criminal investigation into Powell: Not to send him to court, but to force him to withdraw completely
The U.S. Department of Justice has begun a criminal investigation into Powell,
and the market’s initial reaction was — will the Federal Reserve’s independence collapse?
But once things settle:
Trump’s goal isn’t to send him to court,
but through continuous pressure, to make him step down after his term ends
👉 and not even be a board member, leaving the Federal Reserve entirely.
This is a political game, not a legal end.
But in the short term, feelings and tensions are real.
2️⃣ Tuesday CPI: The numbers aren’t important, the structure is
Tuesday night, the December report #CPI
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland expectations:
👉 Year-over-year and monthly comparisons below market consensus
But the bigger risk is:
👉 that the November CPI was affected by government shutdown, leading to a low base
What does this mean?
If the December monthly inflation rate rises slightly,
the market will quickly remember two words:
Inflation rebound.
Even if the long-term trend doesn’t change,
short-term prices may first decline then rise again.
3️⃣ Support for the Affordable Care Act: One reason the government paused
Last week, the House approved the version:
👉 Extending support for 3 years
And now the ball is in the Senate’s court.
The Senate is drafting an alternative
And it has been announced under the name:
👉 "Moreno–Collins Agreement"
The draft will be announced tonight or tomorrow
The main message only:
👉 Can the parties reach an agreement?
Agreement: risks are lifted
No agreement:
👉 The likelihood of another government shutdown at the end of January increases
What the market fears most isn’t bad results,
but delays.
4️⃣ Supreme Court ruling on tariffs: The trend is set, details determine the fate
There’s one point almost certain:
👉 Some tariffs are unconstitutional
The real difference is:
❌ Demanding the abolition of all reciprocal tariffs + tax refunds
👉 Chaos, financial pressures, market disruptions
✅ Maintaining the status quo, but without additional increases
👉 Reduced uncertainty, increased risk assets
The outcome isn’t “whether it’s unconstitutional or not,”
but whether it can be reversed or not.
5️⃣ Earnings season begins: Starting with banks, then moving to AI
This week, the earnings season officially kicks off.
Financial stocks appear first:
Major bank earnings reports = a gauge of the US economy’s temperature
Focus on:
👉 Trump’s policy calling for not exceeding 10% on credit cards,
its actual impact on bank profits
On the tech side:
Focus this week on TSMC
With a good chance of strong performance
But the market cares more about:
👉 When AI can achieve widespread profits?
This question won’t disappear in the short term.
One-word summary
From mid-January to the end,
it’s the “qualification test” for the spring market.
Any of these events
could develop negatively
and lead to significant volatility.
So, the current phase isn’t “launch without thinking,”
but:
👉 Let the market bear the test,
then discuss how sustainable the market is.
The spring market isn’t impossible,
but it has never followed a straight path.#BTCUSDT