DAX 40 Drops To Key Support While AUD/USD Range Trades And Copper Price Slips

(MENAFN- DailyFX (IG)) ​​​Macro update ​Global equities retreat as conflict intensifies:

Asian markets fell sharply after US and Israeli strikes on Iran escalated tensions, with MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan down 2.9%, South Korea tumbling 7.2% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 sliding 3.1%, while US futures also pointed lower.

​Oil climbs on Hormuz concerns:

Brent crude oil gained around 4% to trade at $80 a barrel, building on an 6% rise since Monday as Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, sending tanker rates above $400,000 per day and heightening supply disruption fears.

​Energy shock fuels inflation worries:

Gas prices in Europe and Asia surged, and analysts cautioned that a sustained 20% rise in Brent could shave roughly 2% off regional earnings, increasing pressure on margins and inflation.

​Dollar firms, yen and euro soften:

The US dollar index hovered near a six-week high amid safe-haven demand, while the Japanese yen and euro weakened due to their economies’ heavy reliance on energy imports, with Japanese authorities signalling readiness to intervene if necessary.

​Gold extends safe-haven rally:

Spot gold advanced for a fifth consecutive session, rising about 1% to around $5380 an ounce.

​Rate-cut expectations pushed back:

Markets now expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep rates unchanged in March, with a cut not fully priced until September, as higher oil prices and firm US factory data raise concerns over renewed inflation and stagflation risks.

​DAX 40 falls out of bed

​The DAX 40 is rapidly falling and is expected to probe its 24,273 early February low, a fall through and daily chart close below it would change our medium-term outlook to a bearish one.

​Resistance is seen at Monday’s 24,578 gap low.

​Short-term outlook:

Bearish while below 24,897, this week’s high.

​Medium-term outlook:

Toppish, a daily chart close below the 24,273 early February low would put the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 24,176 on the map, followed by the mid-December 23,924 low.

DAX 40 daily candlestick chart

Source: TradingView

Source: TradingView ​AUD/USD range trades below multi-year high

​Over the past few weeks, AUD/USD has been sideways trading below its mid-February $0.7147 multi-year high but held above its $0.7016 low. While it continues to holds, upside pressure is expected to dominate.

​A rise above last week’s $0.7136 high is likely to push this year’s peak at $0.7147 to the fore, followed by the January 2023 high at $0.7158.

​Short-term outlook:

Neutral with a bullish bias while above $0.7016, targeting the $0.7147-to-$0.7158 area.

​Medium-term outlook:

Bullish while above $0.6897, targeting the January 2023 peak at $0.7158.

AUD/USD daily candlestick chart

Source: TradingView

Source: TradingView ​Copper comes off one-month high

​The copper price has been drifting lower from last week’s $6.1413 high and so far reached the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $5.8948 which offered support.

​Below it minor support may be found around the late January low at $5.8100.

​Immediate downside pressure is expected to remain in play while Monday’s high at $6.0953 caps.

​Short-term outlook:

Neutral with a bearish stance, drifting lower towards $5.8100 while trading below its recent $6.1413 high.

​Medium-term outlook:

Neutral while above support at $5.5950-to-$5.5413 but below its late February $6.1413 peak.

Copper daily candlestick chart

Source: TradingView

Source: TradingView Important to know

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