[US Stock Market Close] Trump offers insurance guarantees + Navy escort for oil tankers, Dow Jones only drops 403 points (updating)

Day 4 of the Iran war: The stock market moves in tandem with news of the Iran conflict. Due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices once surged 9.5%, reaching a high of $77.98. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped as much as 1,277 points or 2.6%, hitting a low of 47,626 points. The S&P 500 fell 2.5% to 6,710 points, and the Nasdaq declined 2.7% to 22,124 points.

See the US stock market close:

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Trump announced that he has arranged insurance guarantees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which could restore oil transportation and stabilize prices. The stock market’s decline narrowed, with the Dow ending down only 403 points or 0.8%, closing at 48,501 points. The S&P 500 fell 0.9% to 6,816, and the Nasdaq declined 1% to 22,516.

Oil prices rose 5% at the close, with New York crude at $74.65 and Brent crude at $81.72.

Trump posted on Truth Social that he has ordered the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide political risk insurance and guarantees at very reasonable prices for all maritime trade (especially energy) passing through the Gulf region. This service will be available to all shipping companies.

He also indicated that if necessary, the U.S. Navy will begin escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible.

“Regardless, the U.S. will ensure that energy supplies to the world can flow freely. America’s economic and military strength is the strongest on Earth—more actions are coming.”

The US dollar index briefly rose 1.3%, then settled at a 0.7% gain, at 99.04. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains around 4%.

Gold prices continued to decline, down 4.3% at $5,094.87, silver fell 8% to $82.23.

Manulife believes that the recent rise in global bond yields may reflect market concerns about a resurgence of inflation and worries about future central bank decisions. However, if the conflict persists for more than a few weeks, its impact on markets and the economy could become more significant.

Swiss Pictet Wealth Management said that in the very short term, the Iran war will negatively impact stocks due to increased geopolitical uncertainty and soaring oil prices. However, history shows that such events’ negative effects are usually short-lived. Investors are advised to prioritize tangible assets—including gold, metals, and other commodities.

The firm noted that if the conflict remains short-term, oil prices could return to pre-crisis levels, and the overall macroeconomic impact will be relatively limited. However, central banks may adopt a more cautious stance in the short term. The Federal Reserve might delay future rate cuts, depending on the duration and severity of the conflict. As long as the scope of the conflict remains limited, the dollar is expected to strengthen temporarily, given the U.S.'s relative energy independence. If new oil shocks occur, markets may see the U.S. as more resilient than Asian countries that heavily rely on oil imports.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updated; see the next page for details.

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Market movements:

【13:27】 Dow futures down 336 points, at 48,609; S&P futures down 49 points, at 6,839; Nasdaq futures down 215 points or 0.9%, at 24,809.

【11:41】【Iran Crisis】 Franklin D. Roosevelt CEO: As long as other Middle Eastern countries do not retaliate, the conflict is unlikely to last more than five weeks.

【11:19】【Iran Crisis】 Oil prices rose another 1% early on. Analysis: The conflict is expected to be short-lived. New York crude trades between $70-75, gold prices will retreat after the war subsides.

【10:50】【AI+Competition】OpenAI users launch a boycott; Anthropic Claude surpasses ChatGPT, becoming the top app on the US Apple App Store.

【10:46】【AI+Defense】Sam Altman: Adding clauses with the Department of Defense to clarify AI cannot be used for monitoring U.S. citizens; OpenAI services will not be used by defense intelligence agencies.

【10:36】【US Tariffs】US Court of Appeals rejects government’s request to delay tariff refunds; refunds can be processed promptly.

【10:10】【AI Frontline】Elon Musk’s X and xAI reportedly plan to repay $17.5 billion in debt.

【09:02】【Iran Crisis】Liu Biao: Plans to curb oil price surges; Trump administration reportedly has no plans to use strategic petroleum reserves.

【08:39】【Fed Rate Cuts】Yellen: Iran crisis impacts US economy and inflation; likely to make the Fed more cautious about cutting rates.

【08:19】【US Economy】JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon warns inflation could be a “party pooper” for the US economy after the “cockroach theory.”

【08:08】【AI+NVIDIA Chips】US considers restricting NVIDIA H200 chip purchases to 75,000 units per Chinese company.

【07:25】【Iran Crisis】Trump: Four main targets in Iran; US Department of Defense reports firing tens of thousands of missiles over two days, including ground-penetrating missiles launched from the US (ongoing updates).

Below $1: US stock market overview on March 2====

Monday: Trump says the conflict is progressing far ahead of schedule; Nasdaq rises 0.4%; Anthropic’s “crash” causes NVIDIA’s stock to jump 3%

Due to many users switching from OpenAI to Anthropic, Anthropic experienced a crash. Since Anthropic is mainly paid, the crash reflects strong growth in paying users, potentially boosting revenue, but also indicates insufficient computing power. Nvidia (US: NVDA) surged 3%, closing at $182.48, boosting the Nasdaq.

See the US stock market close:

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The US stock market last week saw the following movements: For details, see: 【US Market Close】 Block layoffs due to AI, financial stocks plunge, Dow down 521 points.

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