Will smartphones see a price increase trend due to memory price hikes? On-the-ground investigation by reporters is here

“Everyone is talking about memory module prices rising now. Will smartphones also see price increases?” Recently, many consumers have been visiting mobile phone stores with these questions.

According to reporters from the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily, on one hand, memory chips have been experiencing consecutive quarterly price increases; on the other hand, terminal product prices have not yet fully adjusted, quietly changing consumers’ purchasing habits. Some place early orders to lock in prices, some wait and watch for promotions, while others are worried about price hikes and missing out on discounts.

This psychological game of “price increase or not” and “buy or not buy” is already stirring up the smartphone market ahead of 2026.

IDC’s latest forecast shows that this cost storm triggered by memory will reshape the global consumer electronics market landscape by 2026. For the personal computer market, IDC predicts a global sales decline of 11.3% in 2026, while the global smartphone market is expected to decline by 12.9%.

▎Reporter visits mobile phone market: “No price hikes yet, but consumer sentiment is shifting”

Affected by continuous price increases in memory and storage chips over multiple quarters, rumors of a new round of price adjustments in China’s mobile phone market are spreading within the industry.

Recently, reporters from the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily visited stores of brands including Xiaomi, Huawei, and Honor. They learned that most current products have not received price increase notices, but upcoming new models may see price adjustments. Meanwhile, some consumers, worried about future price hikes, have come in early to inquire and express purchase intentions.

“Yesterday, a customer who works with memory modules came to the store. He predicts that after the Lantern Festival, there might be a wave of price increases for phones,” a Huawei store clerk told the Daily. However, the clerk emphasized that the store has not received any official notice of phone price hikes yet, “The possibility of computer price increases is higher.”

An Honor store clerk also told the Daily that due to rising costs of memory and other components, the Honor MagicBook Art 14 laptop has undergone a price adjustment, “Originally priced at 8,499 yuan, now it’s up to 8,999 yuan.” However, the reporter noticed that on online platforms like Taobao, the same product is still offered at a more favorable price, around 8,422 yuan.

“Currently, the phones on sale have not received any price increase notices,” the Honor store clerk told the Daily. The upcoming foldable screen model Magic V6 is expected to go on sale in mid-March, with a price slightly higher than the previous Magic V5. “The starting price for V6 should also be 8,999 yuan, but the 1TB version might be a bit more expensive than the V5 1TB. Other memory configurations’ prices are still uncertain.”

The Daily’s investigation of e-commerce platforms found that the current price of the Honor Magic V5 12GB+256GB version was originally 8,999 yuan, and after applying coupons on Taobao, the price is about 8,909 yuan. According to the price comparison mini-program “Manmanmai,” this product hit a low of around 8,670 yuan on October 11, 2025, and has since hovered between 8,799 and 8,999 yuan.

A Xiaomi store clerk told the Daily that Xiaomi products have not yet received any official notice of price hikes, but they are aware of online rumors that memory price increases could lead to phone price adjustments.

When asked when it would be more cost-effective to buy, the clerk replied to the Daily, “Buying now definitely won’t be a loss. Whether prices will rise later is uncertain, but we offer a 30-day price guarantee. Even if prices drop due to promotions later, we will refund the difference.”

Although the full impact of phone price hikes has not yet materialized, market expectations are quietly influencing consumer psychology. Facing potential future price adjustments, many consumers have expressed their concerns to the Daily.

Ms. Chen, a consumer, had previously planned to wait for promotional discounts to buy the Huawei Mate X7 but now finds herself in a dilemma.

“Now I don’t know whether I should buy now. Some say prices might go up soon, but the current models might not. I’m thinking about waiting for 618 or similar sales,” she admitted. If current models don’t increase in price, buying during promotions would be more cost-effective. But she also worries that the models already on sale might see price increases later, so she’s caught between waiting for discounts and fearing price hikes.

Notably, on March 4, news emerged that several brands had issued notices of upcoming price increases. For example, the Redmi Turbo5 will see a 100 yuan increase. However, the Daily found that in early February, consumers purchased this model for about 1,699 yuan, and on Taobao, after applying subsidies, the price still remains around 1,699 yuan.

▎How will memory price hikes reshape this year’s terminal market landscape?

As concerns about rising DRAM and NAND flash prices at the end of 2025 intensify, manufacturers in the PC and smartphone sectors are actively responding, trying to seize opportunities before cost pressures fully transmit.

IDC predicts that shipments in the PC market in the first quarter of 2026 will be significantly higher than their November forecast. The situation in the smartphone market is more severe, with an expected 6.8% decline in shipments in the first quarter of 2026.

With rising memory prices, some manufacturers—especially smaller ones—are struggling to secure or afford sufficient supply. IDC analysts expect smartphone shipments to drop sharply starting from the second quarter.

“Average selling prices (ASP) will rise, but demand will weaken accordingly,” said an IDC analyst. Due to inflated average prices, even if revenue appears stable, the total annual sales volume is still expected to decline year-over-year.

For the personal computer market, IDC currently forecasts an 11.3% decline globally in 2026, but with rising average prices, revenue is expected to grow by 1.6%. The market is projected to stabilize in 2027, with a rebound delayed until 2028.

The outlook for the smartphone market is bleaker, with IDC predicting a 12.9% decline in global market volume in 2026, and revenue decreasing slightly by 0.5%. A mild growth of 1.9% is expected in 2027, with a strong rebound of 5.2% in 2028.

More importantly, this supply challenge is expected to be a prolonged battle.

IDC forecasts that the memory supply issues will persist into 2026 and possibly extend into 2027. Although the pace of memory price increases will slow in the second half of this year, prices will continue to rise and stay high. “Based on current assumptions, memory prices will not fall back to 2025 levels.”

IDC analysts point out that structural factors causing memory shortages—such as surging demand for AI infrastructure and competition for DRAM and NAND capacity in consumer electronics—still exist. While increased memory capacity and the entry of small Chinese memory suppliers may alleviate some supply issues, these are insufficient to fundamentally resolve the shortage or alter the crisis trajectory.

Industry insiders believe that the subsequent impacts are becoming more apparent and will reshape the competitive landscape of personal computers, smartphones, tablets, XR headsets, wearables, and gaming consoles.