Canadian Stock Market Likely to Open Mixed Amid Economic Data and Corporate Results

Bay Street is likely to begin the week with mixed signals as investors digest a wave of corporate earnings announcements and await critical economic data. The market’s direction will hinge on how traders interpret ongoing geopolitical developments and movements in commodity prices, particularly crude oil and precious metals.

Economic Indicators Show Divergent Business Sentiment

The Canadian Federation of Independent Business released forward-looking data that suggests cautious optimism among entrepreneurs. The CFIB Business Barometer, which measures 12-month expectations for business performance, surged to 64.8 in February 2026 from January’s revised 59.3—marking its strongest reading since April 2022. This uptick indicates business leaders are likely to remain cautiously bullish about near-term prospects, though broader market conditions remain uncertain.

GDP data, scheduled for release at 8:30 AM ET, will provide investors with critical insight into the economy’s underlying momentum. Market participants are watching this report closely to determine whether economic fundamentals can support the recent rally in equities.

Corporate Earnings Reveal Mixed Performance Across Sectors

The earnings season has delivered a mixed picture across major Canadian corporations. Laurentian Bank of Canada reported a challenging Q1 2026, posting a net loss of $20.5 million ($0.58 per diluted share) compared to net income of $38.6 million ($0.76 per share) in the same quarter last year. This represents a significant reversal in profitability for the financial services sector.

Energy companies also showed divergent results. TransAlta Corporation reported a net loss of $62 million ($0.21 per share) in Q4 2025, slightly improved from the prior-year quarter’s $65 million loss ($0.22 per share). Conversely, Boralex Inc. demonstrated stronger performance, delivering $26 million in net earnings for Q4 2025—a $28 million improvement year-over-year.

Meanwhile, Lundin Gold Inc. (LUG.TO) announced the Toronto Stock Exchange approved its notice to renew a normal course issuer bid (NCIB) to repurchase up to 12,086,020 shares, representing 5% of its outstanding shares as of February 24. Similarly, GFL Environmental Inc. initiated renewal of its NCIB program, which will run from March 3, 2026 through March 2, 2027—signaling management confidence in current valuations.

Stock Market Momentum Reaches Record Territory

Despite headwinds in precious metals prices, Canadian equities surged to new all-time highs on the previous session. The S&P/TSX Composite Index advanced 374.63 points or 1.1% to close at a record 34,501.96. Gold stocks delivered particularly impressive gains despite the commodity’s price declining, while industrials and technology stocks also rallied strongly—suggesting investors are likely to maintain their appetite for growth-oriented sectors.

Global Markets Present Mixed Signals

Asian equity markets finished Friday’s session mostly higher, though Nvidia’s robust earnings and guidance failed to allay concerns about the sustainability of the artificial intelligence boom. European stocks are broadly advancing today as investors parse through fresh economic data releases and respond to various corporate announcements.

Commodity Complex Tracks Energy Strength

In commodities trading, crude oil futures are particularly active, with West Texas Intermediate crude gaining $2.04 or 3.13% to trade at $67.25 per barrel. Precious metals are following suit: gold futures are up $19.20 or 0.37% at $5,213.40 per ounce, while silver futures advanced $3.306 or 3.72% to $90.890 per ounce. These gains in energy and metals suggest investors are likely to remain engaged with inflation hedges and cyclical assets.