Geopolitical conflicts intensify, weakening expectations of rate cuts; the probability of a Fed rate cut in March is only 2.7%.

On March 3rd, amid escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, concerns about rising oil prices increased potential inflation risks and weakened expectations for interest rate cuts. According to CME’s “FedWatch” data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in March is only 2.7%, while the probability of holding rates steady is 88%. The probability of maintaining rates unchanged until April is 87.3%, with a 12.5% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point cut and a 0.2% chance of a 50 basis point cut. The next two FOMC meetings are scheduled for March 18 and April 29.