Oil Gains as Traders Take Stock of Iran Tensions and Stockpiles

Weilun Soon

Thu, February 12, 2026 at 1:01 PM GMT+9 2 min read

Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) – Oil climbed for a second day as traders focused on tensions between the US and Iran that have overshadowed signs of swelling supplies.

Brent rose toward $70 a barrel, after gaining almost 1% on Wednesday, with West Texas Intermediate near $65. While US President Donald Trump signaled his goal was to reach a nuclear deal with Tehran — commenting after talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — traders remain concerned about the potential for military strikes and risks to supply.

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Crude has gained every week this year, with a single exception, as geopolitical risks drove futures higher. The US intervened in Venezuela in January, then pivoted to Iran after a wave of protests challenged the Islamic Republic’s leadership. Still, banks maintain there’s abundant supply, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. saying that the surplus was appearing, but it was mainly doing so in locations that are less significant for price-setting.

US crude inventories jumped 8.5 million barrels last week to the highest since June, according to the Energy Information Administration. Later Thursday, the International Energy Agency, the Paris-based adviser to major economies, is due to issue its monthly outlook that may again flag a glut.

As the US-Iranian tensions play out, Washington has positioned a naval force in the region. After meeting Netanyahu, Trump said a deal with Tehran was his preference, according to a social-media post. But if that didn’t happen, “we will just have to see what the outcome will be,” Trump said.

Prices are likely to stay rangebound, with pullback from any diplomatic progress to be limited given the major political hurdles to any durable deal, said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights. “Additional adversarial rhetoric or military posturing may add incremental risk premium, but gains are likely to be capped unless US strikes on Iran appear imminent,” she said.

Flows from Venezuela were also in focus. China has bought some Venezuelan oil that was purchased earlier by the US, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said at a roundtable with the media in Caracas, without giving details. The Latin American country’s so-called oil quarantine was essentially over, he added.

Brent’s prompt spread — the difference between its first two contracts — remains in backwardation, suggesting near-term conditions remain relatively tight. The widely-watched metric was 69 cents a barrel in the bullish structure, little changed from a gap of 65 cents a month ago.

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