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The potential surge in oil prices due to the US-Iran war → Rising inflation expectations → Delay in Federal Reserve rate hikes/ cuts → Increase in US Treasury yields → Tightening liquidity → Pressure on crypto assets.
Mid-term (1–3 months): Volatility and divergence, depending on the intensity of the conflict
- Scenario 1: Limited strikes, quick de-escalation
Rapid rebound after short-term sharp decline, returning to fundamentals like ETF inflows and Federal Reserve policies, with oscillating recovery.
- Scenario 2: Continued confrontation, partial escalation
Oil prices remain high, inflation pressures persist → The Fed maintains high interest rates longer → Liquidity continues to tighten → Crypto markets experience wide fluctuations and weakness; Iran’s mining affected, hash rate declines, mining costs rise, forming weak support.
- Scenario 3: Full-scale war, blockade of the Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices surge to $100–150 → Global stagflation panic → Liquidity crisis → Crypto market deepens decline; in extreme panic, some funds may shift to BTC seeking alternative safe havens, but sustainability is doubtful.
Long-term (3 months+): Macro-driven, structural opportunities
- If the war prolongs and inflation persists → Shift in Fed policy (rate cuts) → Loose monetary policy → Crypto markets rebound along with risk assets.
- If the US intensifies crypto regulation (freezing addresses, restricting transactions) → Major bearish signal, suppressing rebound potential.
- Altcoins fare worse: Funds concentrate into BTC/ETH, small-cap coins face liquidity exhaustion and larger declines.
Key indicators to watch
1. Oil prices and the Strait of Hormuz: whether there is a blockade, whether oil prices break $100.
2. Federal Reserve statements: inflation and interest rate outlook.
3. Crypto leverage and liquidation data: assess whether the sell-off has ended.
4. BTC/ETH capital flows: inflows or outflows from ETFs.
War triggers declines, oil prices contribute to the fall; short-term driven by panic, mid-term by conflict intensity, long-term by liquidity. BTC resembles a high-risk liquidity asset rather than a safe haven.