Why AMD Stock Is Down Despite a Bullish UBS View

Advanced Micro Devices AMD -0.79% ▼ shares declined during regular trading on Monday and slipped further by 0.85% in after-hours action, even after top UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri reiterated a Buy rating on the stock. The weakness followed a report that the U.S. is considering new limits on advanced AI chip exports to China.

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China Export Cap Concerns Weigh on Sentiment

The dip came after Bloomberg reported that U.S. officials are discussing per-customer caps on advanced AI chip sales to Chinese firms. Under the proposal, each Chinese company could be limited to 75,000 of Nvidia’s NVDA +2.99% ▲ H200 chips, with shipments of AMD’s MI325 chips also counting toward that same cap.

The report raised fresh concerns about AI chip demand from China. Since a large portion of high-end accelerator purchases comes from a small group of major tech firms, any per-company limit could restrict total orders from key buyers.

That policy uncertainty appeared to outweigh the positive analyst commentary earlier in the day.

UBS Sees Long-Term Upside

Acuri , a 5-star analyst, pointed to the company’s long-term strength driven by AI data center growth and rising demand. However, he lowered his price target to $310 from $330, citing weakness in the gaming business. The new price target still signals 56% upside from current levels.

The analyst said he is more confident about revenue growth through 2027.  He noted that AMD could land a third gigawatt-scale AI customer beyond its deals with OpenAI and Meta Platforms META +0.83% ▲ . While the company did not name the customer, UBS believes Microsoft MSFT +1.48% ▲ is the most likely candidate.

UBS also pushed back on concerns about AMD’s warrant and equity structure with Meta and OpenAI, calling those agreements unique partnerships rather than a model for all future deals.

The firm remains bullish on AMD’s CPU business and sees upside to its long-term growth outlook. However, UBS added that the bigger revenue impact may come in the second half of 2026 as MI450 shipments ramp.

In short, while UBS remains confident in AMD’s long-term AI opportunity, near-term uncertainty around possible China export limits appears to be keeping pressure on the stock.

Is AMD Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Turning to Wall Street, the analysts’ consensus rating for AMD is Moderate Buy, based on 23 Buy and eight Hold ratings over the past three months. With that comes an average AMD stock price target of $286.04, representing a potential 44.01% upside for the shares.

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