3.3 The key points are here!

Intercontinental Oil & Gas (600759) Brief: In previous articles, we analyzed the January and February markets together. We found that AI hype has not been able to generate significant highs, whether it’s the earlier LEO, the mid-term big positions, or the recent Yunnan Energy, all are half-baked—either under regulatory pressure or unable to rise on their own. This indicates that in 2026, there is considerable disagreement on AI among investors. Coupled with the decline of Nvidia in the US stock market, despite its explosive earnings, and ongoing declines, it reveals many issues that I won’t elaborate on here.

Looking in another direction—cyclical commodities—gold and silver in January, small metals like tungsten in February, and oil and natural gas at the start of March are all cyclical sectors. Not only do they have investor recognition, but they also drive index resonance and upward movement. I won’t delve into too much logic here; just say that for a trend to be established, one must follow the overall situation.

Adding institutional views, many are looking at around 4200 points for non-tech sectors, and recently institutions have promoted Halo trading—focusing on heavy capital, low elimination rates, industries less likely to be replaced by AI. This includes cyclical and resource stocks, among others.

In summary, as we enter March, despite uncertain external situations and expectations for the Two Sessions, the increase in Monday’s trading volume is a real variable. It’s advisable to participate more actively. Next, I will analyze index levels and sentiment cycles:

1. Index Cycle Thinking:

The index aligns with previous predictions—oscillation without ruling out new highs. On Monday, the index briefly surged to 4188 points, just 2 points shy of a new high. Trading volume expanded from over 500 billion to 3 trillion, which will inevitably lead to price and volume increases. Therefore, I still see the index oscillating with potential for new highs. That’s my view on the index cycle.

2. Sentiment Cycle Projection:

First, Long Analysis: After entering March, last weekend saw major events involving the US, Israel, and Iran. This can be seen as the start of a large theme, simply continuing the February oil and gas rally. The timing of this large theme resembles a relay from previous cycles—an old theme’s second wave, so the emotional surge won’t be too strong; rhythm should be watched carefully. From a larger cycle perspective, after gold and silver, the Iran-US issue pushed oil into the spotlight. Meanwhile, various small metals also follow cyclical price increase logic. In March, look for genuine leaders: oil and gas is one direction, and small metals another. We’ll see how they develop over the next few days.

Second, Opportunity Analysis: During the first week after the Spring Festival, trading volume increased by less than 500 billion over four days. On the first day of March, it jumped by over 500 billion. While this doesn’t necessarily mean funds are rushing in, it indicates that many short-term traders are entering the market. Whether it’s the Iran-US conflict or expectations for the Two Sessions, it’s a signal of capital inflow.

From the market perspective, oil and gas in the cyclical sector are exceptionally strong, with a wave of limit-up stocks. According to cyclical logic, combined with a second wave of oil and gas, Monday’s start should see further fermentation and strength. Tuesday is likely to see stronger momentum, and Wednesday may see divergence—weakening some stocks and strengthening others. Tuesday could be an opportunity for rotation in oil and gas stocks. Afterwards, focus will gradually shift to core stocks. Besides oil and gas, small metals, gold, and silver performed very strongly on Monday afternoon. The key participation point depends on the potential escalation of US-Iran tensions. Currently, the short-term end seems unlikely.

In summary, I personally recommend increasing participation in non-tech sectors at this point—such as sectors related to the Two Sessions, like new energy storage and energy substitution, or cyclical commodities like small metals.

Special Reminder: The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. No stock recommendations are provided! Investing involves risks; please proceed cautiously!