Analysis: Geopolitical risks combined with delayed interest rate cut expectations, the US dollar may become the ultimate winner

CycleProphet · 2026-03-02T10:51:08+00:00

As the Iran conflict escalates, the global financial markets may be affected by fluctuations in investor risk appetite. Analysts warn that the safe-haven role of government bonds could weaken, especially in the U.S. market, where rate cut expectations have already been priced in, potentially leading to a continued strengthening of the dollar.

CycleProphet

2026-03-02 10:51:08

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Deep Tide TechFlow News, March 2 — According to Jintiao Data, based on analysis by Kaito Macro economists, as the Iran conflict fluctuates and evolves, the global financial markets are likely to be impacted by shifts in investor risk appetite. They warn that if the conflict intensifies, government bonds may not provide reliable safe-haven protection, as expectations for monetary easing could be delayed. This situation is especially evident in economies like the U.S., where markets have already priced in multiple rate cut expectations. If sentiment continues to worsen, the dollar could remain strong, mainly due to the end of rate cuts making relative yields more favorable for the dollar, and the U.S. being a net energy exporter.

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